Today is Election Day and I will be at the polls all day long with no internet access. That is the price I pay for writing my name on the ballot for Minority Election Inspector. In any case, I know the media is calling this election a squeaker, but it really isn’t. I’m going to call it right not.
Obama wins! The media is making a big deal about Ohio, but really any one of the big four battle ground states are equally as important. Let me explain it this way. The way I see it, Obama needs to win any one of these four states: Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, or Florida. Romney needs to win ALL four of them PLUS either Colorado or New Hampshire.
Now let’s look at the polls. Obama is significantly ahead in Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire. Florida and Colorado are tossups and Romney will probably win North Carolina. What does that mean? It means that this election isn’t going to be close. Obama easily wins.
Let’s give Romney the benefit of the doubt here and say that he wins the two tossups. I’ll give him Florida and Colorado (both of which I predict Obama will win, btw). I’ll concede North Carolina to Romney because he probably will win that one. Now what? Romney needs to fix the election in Ohio (which is possible because his son does own some of the voting machines there) and Virginia.
I do think it is unlikely Romney will take Virginia at this point. Obama is up in the polls there and is riding high on the momentum from the last three debates and Hurricane Sandy. Romney hasn’t really been able to make any ground there.
Here is how I see it going down. Obama wins all those states except North Carolina. I know that is optimistic, but the only ones that are close are really Florida and Colorado and at best for Romney they are tossups. They aren’t even polling in his favor right now. Obama has the momentum from the hurricane which in Florida goes a long way. I hear they know a little something about hurricanes down there. Colorado usually has the Religious Right, but I don’t see them coming out so strongly for Romney. They didn’t for McCain and he had Sarah Palin running with him. Ryan is a religious wacko, but not nearly as religious wacko as Palin was. I just don’t see it.
Here is the bottom line though. Even if I am wrong about the exact number, Obama is going to win against Mitt Romney. However, if we measure this election against four years ago, then Obama loses against Obama from four years ago. He lost states and that isn’t a good sign for the future of the Democratic Party.
The American people are moving more to the left and the Democratic Party is moving more to the right. People are getting fed up with the system. The fact that politicians are bought has become way too obvious for most people. So Democrats shouldn’t be patting themselves on the back when Obama wins. They should be pushing Obama to move more to the left. The fight doesn’t end on Election Day, it begins!