In 2009, a very important paper was released. It’s short but very dense. It describes the results of a model of climate change that has included over 400 parameters in over a thousand different emissions scenarios.
The results were not very heartening then and even worse now.
If we, as a species, can limit the carbon emissions to 1,000 gigatons of carbon from the year 2000 to 2050, then there is only a 25% chance of a greater than 2 degree C global temperature rise. If we can keep the carbon emissions from between 1,000 and 1,400 gigatons, then there is a 50% chance of a greater than 2 degree C global temperature rise.
Now for the bad news. Between 2000 and 2006, we released 234 gigatons of carbon.
That means, that if we keep going at the rate we are, we have 11 years from now to STOP emitting carbon. Not reduce, not slow, but stop. If we want to keep the Earth to a less than 2 degree temperature rise, then we must start reducing carbon emissions now.
We’re not.
After 11 years (assuming emissions stay the same as they are), we will be committed to a 2 degree C rise in temperature.
There’s worse news. In order to keep the emissions to within a reasonable level (i.e. the 50% scenario), something like 80% of the current fossil fuel reserves would have to be left in the ground.
How likely is that to happen?
