• Graph of the Week – Safe Money in NH

    Voting is already underway in New Hampshire, so this post is at least 8 hours too late; you have my apologies. Still, the ultimate outcome is far from clear, and thus we still have time to check with the betting markets to see where the candidates currently stand. As of this morning, here are the best results you can hope to get of a $100 wager on each of the GOP frontrunners for the presidential nomination, assuming they win the state.

    Higher stacks of money mean less chance to win

    Just like last time around, the safe money is on Trump. Then again, the political betting markets did not foresee Trump sliding down to a second place finish in Iowa.  Then again (again), Iowa is notoriously difficult to predict, more-or-less by design. Polls are less predictive in earlier contests than later ones, less predictive in caucuses than primaries, and less predictive in situations where more candidates remain viable. If anyone cares to wager against Trump on this race, please contact me before noon. I will take that action.

    On the Democratic ticket, Sanders remains very heavily favored to win, with Clinton running at 16-to-1 against. There is nothing particular surprising about that, given the demographics of New Hampshire. I hereby predict that New Hampshire will be Sanders’ first statewide victory, and his last.

    Category: Damned Lies and StatisticsPolitics

    Article by: Damion Reinhardt

    Former fundie finds freethought fairly fab.