[Content note: Probable election spoilers. If you live in Iowa, and you intend to caucus Republican, please don’t read this. Just go vote forth and your conscience.]
The primary process kicks off in earnest today, as Iowans go out to caucus for their preferred candidate. Accordingly, today is our last chance to check the betting markets to see which outcomes are considered long shots and which are thought to be safe money. Here is what you’d receive from placing a $100 bet on each of the GOP frontrunners in Iowa:
Notice that a $100 wager on Trump will get you only $44 in return if he wins, which is to say that he is by far the odds-on favorite. Cruz is a bit behind, at 2-to-1 against, and Rubio is a distant third at 12-to-1 odds. All the other candidates are such awful long-shots as to be ruinous to the y-axis upon inclusion:
I’m sorry to say this, but right now the safe money is on Trump. For once, I would really like to have my faith in prediction markets overturned.