My mother has been the unfortunate recipient of four tire flats within the past two years, a year and a half to be more precise. She drives a 2013 Lexus SUV and is a fairly conservative, yet mindful, driver, residing in a suburb of San Diego, where temperatures and conditions are somewhat Mediterranean, sunny without much rain. The areas of town in which she drives are within a 20 mile radius of her home, without much, if any, construction and always on clean and well-maintained paved roads; most of her time out is spent doing daily errands and trips to the store, where she will stay out for 4 or 5 hours, then return home, without any trips in the vehicle prior or after that predictable timeframe. She and my father are meticulous when it comes to personal property, so their vehicles are typically at the Lexus dealership even before maintenance is required. As for the Lexus dealership in Carlsbad, California, my parents have one representative whom they work with since having purchased their vehicles, and as a result, the service department there seems to ensure everything is repaired and exceptional prior to releasing the cars back to them. My mother is 70 years old, however one would never guess, based on the way she looks and her quick agility.
After perusing several of the well written articles on this site, I thought I would submit a scenario for review, in order to find out if a general odds ratio can be determined, based on somewhat vague information I mentioned above as groundwork, and would be more than willing to answer any additional questions, or add commentary where I can. I understand that there are many indeterminable factors, especially as a result of unique characteristics every individual possesses, including temperament, driving technique, time of the year, time of the day, season in which these events occurred. However, once I explain the oddities of these circumstances, will these personality characteristics seem less relevant, making less factors to take into account.
As I mentioned in my original statement above, my mother has had 4 flat tires, within the space of a year and a half. Every incident of a flat tire has occurred on the same tire, which was originally front right passenger side, and was the result of an odd bubble in the sidewall, which leaked air, due to the lack of a tube on Lexus vehicles. That tire was eventually replaced, then subsequently rotated to the rear passenger side, as standard procedure when replacing a tire. Within a month, the location to where the tire was moved, rear passenger side, incurred a flat, this time the result of some sort of shrapnel. At this point, all 4 tires were replaced, although they still had roughly a couple thousand, if not 10,000, more miles to go, mainly to save the hassle and because of a good deal on buying 4 tires. Since that time, she has experienced 2 additional flats, one the result of a nail, the other of unknown origin. Once again, the order went from front to back, however we lost track of the particular supposed arrangement of the tires after the first two flats.
My mother has no enemies, so this is absolutely not the result of somebody with a grudge, just what appears to be a poor situation. As my ability to process high-level odds making has dwindled, I am asking for help in attempting to determine the approximate odds of this particular situation occurring, as I have speculated that, although not astronomical, these odds would have to be rather high.
My mother has been the unfortunate recipient of four tire flats within the past two years, a year and a half to be more precise. She drives a 2013 Lexus SUV and is a fairly conservative, yet mindful, driver, residing in a suburb of San Diego, where temperatures and conditions are somewhat Mediterranean, sunny without much rain. The areas of town in which she drives are within a 20 mile radius of her home, without much, if any, construction and always on clean and well-maintained paved roads; most of her time out is spent doing daily errands and trips to the store, where she will stay out for 4 or 5 hours, then return home, without any trips in the vehicle prior or after that predictable timeframe. She and my father are meticulous when it comes to personal property, so their vehicles are typically at the Lexus dealership even before maintenance is required. As for the Lexus dealership in Carlsbad, California, my parents have one representative whom they work with since having purchased their vehicles, and as a result, the service department there seems to ensure everything is repaired and exceptional prior to releasing the cars back to them. My mother is 70 years old, however one would never guess, based on the way she looks and her quick agility.
After perusing several of the well written articles on this site, I thought I would submit a scenario for review, in order to find out if a general odds ratio can be determined, based on somewhat vague information I mentioned above as groundwork, and would be more than willing to answer any additional questions, or add commentary where I can. I understand that there are many indeterminable factors, especially as a result of unique characteristics every individual possesses, including temperament, driving technique, time of the year, time of the day, season in which these events occurred. However, once I explain the oddities of these circumstances, will these personality characteristics seem less relevant, making less factors to take into account.
As I mentioned in my original statement above, my mother has had 4 flat tires, within the space of a year and a half. Every incident of a flat tire has occurred on the same tire, which was originally front right passenger side, and was the result of an odd bubble in the sidewall, which leaked air, due to the lack of a tube on Lexus vehicles. That tire was eventually replaced, then subsequently rotated to the rear passenger side, as standard procedure when replacing a tire. Within a month, the location to where the tire was moved, rear passenger side, incurred a flat, this time the result of some sort of shrapnel. At this point, all 4 tires were replaced, although they still had roughly a couple thousand, if not 10,000, more miles to go, mainly to save the hassle and because of a good deal on buying 4 tires. Since that time, she has experienced 2 additional flats, one the result of a nail, the other of unknown origin. Once again, the order went from front to back, however we lost track of the particular supposed arrangement of the tires after the first two flats.
My mother has no enemies, so this is absolutely not the result of somebody with a grudge, just what appears to be a poor situation. As my ability to process high-level odds making has dwindled, I am asking for help in attempting to determine the approximate odds of this particular situation occurring, as I have speculated that, although not astronomical, these odds would have to be rather high.