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(Submitted by blog reader Chuck Colht)

A few years (2009?) ago, one of my daughters gave me a mix cd for my birthday. I had just bought a(nother) sports car and she found a bunch of driving songs from the ’60s to current.  It stayed in my cd player but I didn’t listen too often because I generally had the top down and preferred the sound of the wind.

Anyway, this cd moved from car to car as I changed up but got little play. In 2012, I went to the theater to meet my kids and grand kids to see Wreck-It Ralph. On the way, because I left my iPod at home, I fired up the cd and found track 6: Rhianna’s “Shut up and Drive.” I’m more into grunge but I love this song and couldn’t believe I hadn’t noticed it before.

Now for the coincidence. At one point in the movie Vanellope starts racing around a track to what song? “Shut up and Drive.” So the first time I notice a song that’s been at my disposal for 3 years is the day I hear it on the big screen.

Pretty cool no?


Below are the extended notes provided by cognitive psychologist and statistician Barbara Drescher for use in Skepticality Episode 226.  Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary. Also, visit Barbara’s blog.

At least a third of the stories submitted to TOMBC involve incidents which are not statistically interesting, but demonstrate the human brain’s amazing ability to make connections. Humans begin making associations the day we are born, connecting dots wherever we can. This process allows us to predict the world around us. Prediction, in turn, allows us to avoid dangers and plan for the future. It is also the first step in understanding cause and effect, which may allow us to control things in the world. So, it shouldn’t be surprising that we often ascribe deeper meaning to the connections we’ve made.

The author of this story demonstrates the power of attention. The fact that he rarely played the CD before is not relevant, but because he was surprised to enjoy the song, he noticed when he heard it again a short time later. In psychology, we call this effect “priming”. Priming refers to the tendency for something we see or hear to increase the probability that we will respond to that same thing, or something similar or related to it, when we are exposed to it again.

However, there is no real coincidence here. The song is quite popular, so it shouldn’t be surprising to hear it in a movie such as “Wreck-It Ralph”. The CD was appropriate to the outing, so it also shouldn’t be surprising that a song (or even two) on the CD would overlap with the soundtrack of the movie.

By Ben Radford

Amazing coincidences happen all the time — but are they simply the product of random chance, or do they convey some hidden meaning? The answer may depend on whether you believe in synchronicity.

The term synchronicity was coined by Swiss psychiatrist Carl Jung (1875-1961). Jung had a strong belief in a wide variety of paranormal phenomena, including psychic powersastrologyalchemy, predictive dreams, UFOs and telekinesis (moving objects with the mind). He was also obsessed with numerology — the belief that certain numbers have special cosmic significance, and can predict important life events.

Jung’s concept of synchronicity is complicated and poorly defined, but can be boiled down to describing “meaningful coincidences.” The concept of synchronicity came to Jung during a period of mental illness in the early 1900s. Jung became convinced that everything in the universe is intimately connected, and that suggested to him that there must exist a collective unconscious of humankind. This implied to him that events happening all over the world at the same time must be connected in some unknown way.

In his book “137: Jung, Pauli, and the Pursuit of a Scientific Obsession,” Arthur I. Miller gives an example of synchronicity; one of his patients “told Jung that when her mother and grandmother died, on each occasion a flock of birds gathered outside the window of the room.” The woman’s husband, who had symptoms of heart problems, went out to see a doctor and “on his way back the man collapsed in the street. Shortly after he had set off to see the specialist a large flock of birds had alighted on the house. His wife immediately recognized this as a sign of her husband’s impending death.”

Is synchronicity real?

There is, of course, a more prosaic explanation for curious coincidence: birds are very common, and simply by random chance a flock will appear near people who are soon to die — just as they appear daily around millions of people who are not soon to die.

The appearance of synchronicity is the result of a well-known psychological phenomenon called confirmation bias (sometimes described as remembering the hits and forgetting the misses); we much more easily notice and remember things that confirm our beliefs than those that do not. The human brain is very good at making connections and seeing designs in ambiguous stimuli and random patterns.

 

Carl Jung
Swiss psychiatrist Carl Jung (1875-1961)
Credit: Library of Congress
If Jung’s patient came to believe that a flock of birds meant that death was imminent, she would start noticing flocks of birds, and remember the times when they coincided with a loved one’s death. But she would not likely notice or remember the countless times when flocks of birds appeared over people who lived for years or decades longer. Put another way, a person dying when a flock of birds is present is an event; a person not dying when a flock of birds is present is a non-event, and therefore not something anyone pays attention to. This is the result of normal human perceptual and memory biases, not some mysterious cosmic synchronicity.

It’s easy to see why synchronicity has mass appeal; it provides meaning and order in an otherwise random universe. One famous (and more modern) example of synchronicity is the “pennies from heaven” phenomenon described by advice columnist Dear Abby. Thousands of readers have written Abby over the years telling personal stories of thinking about dead loved ones while they happen to find a penny — often with the finder’s (or the dead loved one’s) birth, marriage, or death year — and taking that as a comforting sign that their departed loved ones are thinking of them.

Yet countless people find pennies all the time; some of them will have recently thought of a dead relative, and a smaller subset of that group will find a penny with a significant date on it. Statistically it would be unusual if this did not occur regularly — but of course most people prefer to think of the event as a touching sentiment instead of a cold, random coincidence.

Synchronicity and pseudoscience

Robert Todd Carroll, in his book “The Skeptics Dictionary,” notes that “even if there were a synchronicity between the mind and the world such that certain coincidences resonate with transcendental truth, there would still be the problem of figuring out those truths. What guide could one possibly use to determine the correctness of an interpretation?” There is no scientific or objective way to determine whether synchronicity is valid or not; it’s all subjective personal opinion and experience and flexible definitions.

Taking the example of Jung’s avian banshee, if you truly believe that the presence of birds is a portent of death, there are many questions that need to be examined: How many birds are needed? One? Dozens? Hundreds? Is it any type of bird? How soon before a person’s death do they appear? Minutes, hours or days? Does it differ from person to person? And even if the proposed synchronicity was true, how do we know whose death the birds’ presence foretells? Perhaps there was a dying person elsewhere in the building whose death the birds had come to mourn, and it was not Jung’s patient’s husband at all.

Or, let’s say, for example, that you were thinking about taking a vacation to a destination two states away. You could drive there, or fly, or possibly take a train … but as you ponder it, a fly buzzes into the room and lands on your head. Jung would claim that synchronicity indicates that you should fly there; the universe has given you a clear sign by connecting your thoughts with the outside world and its future. Except that it hasn’t, not really; the cosmic connection is all in your mind. To see why, imagine that it happened to a Spanish speaker; in that case, the synchronous co-incidence of thinking of a mode of transportation while a fly lands on you evaporates, since the Spanish word for the insect fly (mosca), is not the same as the word for an aerial method of transportation (volar). Surely any transcendental, universal truths don’t depend on what language you speak.

Though Jung had no background in science (his interests lay in mysticism and psychology) he — like many modern New Age writers, including Deepak Chopra — invoked quantum physics in support of his ideas. Jung’s ideas about synchronicity were given a veneer of scientific respectability through his friendship with physicist Wolfgang Pauli, who helped promote them.

Synchronicity is an interesting philosophical idea; unfortunately there is no evidence that it actually exists. It is not surprising that synchronicity — like many ideas of Jung and his colleague Sigmund Freud — have not been proven. Even the famous Myers-Briggs Type Indicator personality test, which was based in part on Jung’s work, has been widely challenged as invalid and unscientific. A century ago when Jung came up with the idea of synchronicity, it seemed to be an exciting, cutting-edge theory. Unfortunately for Jung, it is one of many fruitless quasi-scientific ideas in history that has not stood the test of time.

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Republished courtesy of the author. See the original story in Live Science here.

Benjamin Radford, M.Ed., is deputy editor of Skeptical Inquirer science magazine and author of six books including Scientific Paranormal Investigation: How to Solve Unexplained Mysteries. His website is www.BenjaminRadford.com. Thanks to friend of the blog Brian Hart for alerting TOMBC to this story.

Submitted by a reader who prefers to remain anonymous. From her blog:

“As a follow-up to my last blog “Proof of Life After Death” which explored the possibility of psychic mediums communicating with those who have crossed over…

There are more ways besides mediums that your deceased loved ones can personally communicate with you..to let you know they are well and watching over you. I would like to share with you one…of many signs…that have proved to me that my deceased loved ones still live on. This story is about my beloved Grandmother or as I called her – Nana.

About 10 years ago I was trying to have a 2nd child…my first came easy but the 2nd proved to be difficult. I happened to be staying at my mom’s overnight (where Nana had lived the last few years of her life) and before I went to bed asked Nana to pray for me to have another baby.

That night, THE DREAM happened ..I was asleep but still knew as it was happening that it was TOO REAL to be just a dream… my Nana came to me. The dream was as real to me as you reading this right now.  I was crying, so happy to see my Nana and hugged her and asked her if she was OK …”Good,” was her response…”I can’t stay long,” she said “but want to tell you that you are going to have another baby!” I responded that I knew I was asleep and could she offer me any PROOF that she was really there talking to me. She said, “Remember the slippers. You’ll know it’s me because of the slippers. Remember the slippers.”

When I woke the next morning the “dream” I had the previous night was as clear as day. I remembered her “slippers” message but in the wake of day…slippers.. had NO meaning for me. None. That is, until I finally asked my Mom (without giving her any details about my dream) … “Mom, this is gonna sound crazy but is there anything special you would think of associated with Nana and slippers?”

She immediately said “Yes, I was reading an article in a magazine a few days ago about a daughter who was taking care of her elderly dying mother (as my Mom had taken care of my Nana) and how her dying Mom’s slippers (and the loss of one of them which paralleled her loss of independence) were a major point of the article.” My Mom then told me that the article moved her so much because it reminded her of my Nana that she saved the article for me to read. The title of the article…”The Gray Slippers.”

Welcome, baby Ryan 3-2-04!

Thank you Nana, for being there for me… always.

XO


Below are the extended notes provided by cognitive psychologist and statistician Barbara Drescher for use in Skepticality Episode 225.  Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary. Also, visit Barbara’s blog.

This is another case of the very human tendencies to find meaning in coincidences and ascribe agency. There are several points to address here.

– Dreams that we can remember are often described as vivid, and we experience (and remember them) as if they are physically real because brain activity while we are dreaming is very similar to brain activity when we are awake. So to say a dream did not feel like a dream is not only not unusual, it’s how most people experience dreams, and when we believe they are meaningful, we’re more likely to share them and thinking about them, construct stronger images to beef up the memory.

– The slippers in the story her mother read are not connected with being pregnant or with anything in the author’s life. They are not even connected with anything in the grandmother’s life or the mother’s life.

– When the author asked her mother if she knew what “slippers” meant, her mother searched her memory for some reference to slippers and came up with the story. This is not at all unusual. In fact, it would be unusual for her to come up with nothing. I would be much more impressed if, for example, the mother arrived at the author’s house with slippers the author wore as a baby. Even if that were the case, it would still be a case of making connections between unrelated things (finding patterns) and assuming that they must be related in a causal way (ascribing agency).

But there is no reason to think that there is anything more than the dream of a woman who was focused on having a child, a woman who looked for greater meaning in that dream.

(Submitted by reader Carolyn Melendez de Lafuente)

As usual, I was late in prepping our tax documents for our accountant to meet the filing deadline.

I filled in all the information I had gleaned from the various support documents, including the letter from our mortgage company indicating how much interest we’d paid on our mortgage.  I completed the three pages, placed one in the scanner to be scanned onto my computer, and placed the other two on top of the scanner.

I then turned away and fiddled with the app on my computer. I heard the sound of falling paper behind me. When I turned around, the two pages that I had placed on top of the scanner were gone. I obviously heard the sound of them falling, so I gathered that they had floated away. SOMEWHERE.

My search began. Behind the garbage bin. In the garbage bin. Across the room. Behind the filing cabinet that the scanner was on top of. Between the filing cabinet and the wall. I WAS STARTING TO PANIC. Then I thought to look in the sliver of space between that filing cabinet and the immediately adjacent filing cabinet. I pushed it away and there were 3 sheets of paper there — the two I had been looking frantically for AND an additional sheet of paper — a tax form that I had filled out for the previous year, which included mortgage interest paid the year before last.

I noticed immediately that the number was WAY off…almost DOUBLE what I had just written on the current documents I was scanning. Then it dawned on me — our mortgage company transferred our mortgage a few months into the year! I had totally forgotten, and included only one mortgage provider’s numbers. If I hadn’t seen that additional sheet of paper, I would have provided an incorrect number to our accountant! I looked up and said thank you to the Universe for the assist. 🙂


Below are the extended notes provided by cognitive psychologist and statistician Barbara Drescher for use in Skepticality Episode 224.  Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary. Also, visit Barbara’s blog.

Things always seem more coincidental when we feel that we have averted some harm. I’m reminded of stories about averting disaster, like people who miss a flight that crashes, or those who called in sick to the World Trade Center on 9/11/2001.

The truth is that if they’d gone to work, there’s a good chance they would have gotten out alive (a majority of people working in the building did).  We forget all of the times that we missed a flight that did not crash or called in sick and nothing happened.

In this case, the chances are excellent that the mistake would have been caught regardless, but the urge to attribute the incident to “fate” is strong.

(Submitted by reader Jim Hammond)

Many years ago, I was returning home after visiting my family in Tampa. I was driving north on US 19 and would be making a left turn on US 98 to go west to the Florida panhandle.

I knew my brother would be driving south on US 19 the same day as he was returning from visiting his girlfriend. He would be turning left at the same intersection to go east on SR 20 back to the University of Florida where he was in school.

The only place our paths could potentially cross would be at that one intersection. When I got to that intersection I was first in line at the red light in the left turn lane. I looked across the interesection and my brother was first in line in the left turn lane going the other way.

I waved at him and continued on my way. I thought to myself, what are the odds that we would meet?

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[Editor: This story made me think of the times I’ve seen friends driving when I’ve been on the road. I think this happens more often than one would guess. In Los Angeles, driving in the past twenty years has changed in one noteworthy aspect: increased population density has made it a huge challenge to find parking. Several times, however, I’ve seen friends in their cars on the freeway. You’d hardly think it’s possible because of the density, other variables such as drivers’ different schedules, distance from home, different reasons for being on the road – not much different from other reasons we think we won’t cross paths with friends and relatives. Another way to think of it is how many times were you on the road at the same time, and didn’t happen to see each other? – Wendy]

One Word: Coincidence

(Submitted by reader Bernhard Liefting)

About 10 years ago, I worked in Germany for a few months (I live in the Netherlands) and I spent weekdays in a hotel. One day I picked up a magazine from the hotel lobby to read in my room.

There was an article in there about the plastic industry, titled “One word, plastics”, a famous quote from the movie “The Graduate”, starring Dustin Hoffman, in which the character he plays is given career advice by his uncle.

After a few minutes, I put down the magazine, and switched on the TV, having no clue what was on. What do I see: the movie “The Graduate”, and which specific scene, well, you probably guessed it, the first thing I hear was “One word, plastics”.


Below are the extended notes provided by cognitive psychologist and statistician Barbara Drescher for use in Skepticality Episode 223.  Take a look and leave your comments below. Please be sure to listen to the podcast for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary. Also, visit Barbara’s blog.

There is no way to quantify this. We’ve had stories like this before, though, so I know that I’ve commented on it.

Things like this happen all the time. For example, last night we were watching “Raising Hope” and Damon said something to the boys about how he wishes they were old enough to see Garret Dillahunt (plays Burt Chance) in “Deadwood”, in which he played two different characters.

A couple of minutes later, Burt (the character) uttered a line from “Deadwood”.

(Submitted by Friend of the Blog, Brian Hart)

Not twins.

Not twins.

Haven’t we all heard the old saw that everyone has an exact double somewhere in the world? Lookalikes are a form of coincidence – coinciding features that make people look so much alike that they seem to be twins, except they  are unrelated. They are having a special experience, and as photographer Francois Brunelle articulates below, it is not that they look like a celebrity – they look just like someone else. Brian Hart submitted this article a few months ago, and I’ve been saving it for a special occasion. This is our gift to you – whatever holiday you are celebrating, or none, enjoy this special piece of photojournalism.

“Brunelle has studied the human face since he started out as a photographer in 1968, at the age of 18. He said he was ‘fascinated by the resemblance between look-alikes.’

‘It is not about looking like famous people,’ he said. ‘The project is about looking like other people.

‘The fact that two persons, totally unrelated to each other, sometimes born in different countries, share the same physical appearance is really the essence of (it).'” – from the article.

 

The Cable Coincidence

(Submitted by reader Andy Harding)

We had just moved into a new house and couldn’t find the cable to connect my printer to my computer. I gave up looking and decided to go into town and buy a new one.

As I left the house I found the cable I needed laying in the road. The weekly garbage truck had passed a few minutes earlier.

No, it wasn’t the cable I had lost; it was shorter and a different color. I later found the missing cable in a different box.

When I tell people about this I get some funny looks, I don’t think anyone believes me.


Below are the extended notes provided by cognitive psychologist and statistician Barbara Drescher for use in Skepticality Episode 221.  Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary. Also, visit Barbara’s blog.

This is a very impressive story, but I have little analysis to offer.

It’s highly likely that the cable is very common, since most printer cables are pretty standard, but it’s not very often that people just throw out cables. To top that off, how often do those cables fall out of trash bins (or a car, or wherever it came from) to be found lying on the ground? And right when he needed it?

I’d say this one is just one of those extremely unlikely events that we must expect a few of in our lives.

(Submitted by Friend of the Blog, Andrew Hansford)

I met Ajay Appaden at The Amazing Meeting 2013. Ajay had traveled from Kerala, India to serve as Mr. Randi’s personal assistant at TAM and to travel the USA in the weeks after TAM. While we were discussing aspects of the Million Dollar Challenge event, Ajay told me that he had lived in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia until he was twelve. I found that interesting because my uncle and aunt also lived in Riyadh at about the same time. (Mid 80s through mid 90s). That was not a major coincidence; Riyadh is a large city with a large ex-patriot population at that time.

I offered Ajay a place to stay in New Hampshire if he decided to see Boston and New England. We kept in touch as he traveled in the US. During those conversations we discovered that his mother and my uncle both worked at the King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center in Riyadh. Another small coincidence, but King Faisal is a large facility. His mother did not remember my uncle and my uncle died several years ago, so I could not ask him.

During Ajay’s visit to New England over Labor Day weekend, we decided to watch videos shot in Riyadh during the first Gulf War (Desert Storm) that my aunt and uncle lent me to digitize several years before. Apparently, some of the ex-pats in Riyadh videotaped the Scud attacks and the aftermath on the city and people traded around mixes of those tapes. Ajay was a toddler living in there at the time.

The tapes were spooky with the wail of the air raid sirens and how calmly people recorded incoming missiles, the launch of the American Patriot defense missiles, and the running around trying to find the Scud landing sites. During one of the clips as the videographer panned showing the buildings around him, Ajay said, “That looks like where I used to live.” I assumed that much of Riyadh would have a similar look. “No, that really looks like where I used to live. There is a picture of a Scud attack up in my living room in Kerala. It was given to my mother because our apartment building is in it. I’ll have my brother send a photo of it.”

Photo from Appaden home.

Photo from Appaden home.

 

As we compared the photograph of the print hanging in a living room in Cochin, India to the videotape loaned to me 10 years previous, we determined that not only was the video taken from the same location as the photograph, it was also taken at the same time, during the same event. The videotape in my possession in Milford NH, showed Ajay’s childhood home in Riyadh– on a night he was there — and captured an event that he would know all his life through a photograph hanging in his living room.

 

 

 

Clip from Riyadh videotape.

Clip from Riyadh videotape.

 

We kept saying to ourselves “We are skeptics. We KNOW this doesn’t mean anything.” It sure did tickle our brains though.

 

 

 

 


Below is analysis provided by cognitive psychologist and statistician Barbara Drescher.  Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, visit Barbara’s blog.

I actually don’t find this story all that surprising. As the author noted, it is not at all unusual to know or meet more than one person who lived in a particular city, especially a large one, at the same time. It is also not unusual to discover that you know people who worked in the same place at the same time.

The video/image match feels more impressive, but it is actually less so. The author mentioned that images and videos were passed around. It is likely that people who were would collect them, especially those which showed places were they lived (and they’ve had 20 years to do so). Furthermore, if one person in a building thought that the event was worth recording on film, it’s highly likely that others would, too, hence the existence of both snapshots and video which appear to have been taken from roughly the same location.

At this point I might normally remark that it is more surprising that they would notice the similarities than it is that the similarities are there, but even that is not surprising in this case because people tend to look at images of important events in their lives over and over again. Think about how familiar some videos and images of the events of 9/11/01 are to you.

(Submitted by blog reader Tom B.)

In 1999/2000 and I was living and working in Cambridge, my mum knowing I liked sci-fi and fantasy had posted me an old book she had found on a holiday to Brighton, the book was an anthology called Strange Adventures in Time.  I had been reading through the book and had got to Rip Van Winkle by Washington Irving (I was reading this book on the loo, and had a CD playing in the next room).

The CD was the first album by my favourite band – Belle and Sebastian called Tigermilk and I had owned it for 2-3 years and listened to it regularly.  While reading the book and listening to the CD in the background I got a weird feeling, and as I sat there contemplating the song “I could be dreaming”.

Now this song has a part where a woman talks in a lovely Scottish accent in the background starting quietly and getting louder, and I had never known or paid much attention to her or known what she was reading. However as I listened and read I noticed that she was reading the words from the page I had just read.  This gave me a weird spooky feeling and I can’t remember a more striking coincidence happening to me, and I’m always reminded of it when I listen to the song.


Below are the extended notes provided by Ed Clint for use in Skepticality Episode 220.  Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary.

This is my second contribution to the series and I want to take this opportunity to briefly emphasize there are, strictly speaking, statistics can’t apply to singular events. Probability theory is based on sets of things (like a deck of cards), and answering, what can we say about this set when interacting with it? One-of events are by definition, not part of a set. Here on TOMBC we do talk about odds, and rightly so, but we do so in the sense of the folk meaning of “likelihood”. We will talk about numbers, but these are either metaphorical odds expressing a subjective appraisal of likelihood (not statistical odds) or else are the odds of some set of events that resembles in many details the strange one-of coincidences. I expect this point has been made on TOMBC before, but I like to be clear.

It’s plenty freaky to hear the text read aloud on a CD you’ve just read yourself. The first question is, what are the odds any one piece of pop culture, like a song, references or quotes a specific other bit, like a story? Many songs include quoted intact bits of audio, or else quotes or allusions: Information Society sampled Star Trek, Sir Mix-A-Lot sampled Full Metal Jacket, Gwen Stefani sampled The Sound of Music, and the melody from the White Town one-hit wonder Your Woman includes a trumpet riff from the soundtrack of a 1930’s serial also often thought to have been appropriated by George Williams for Star Wars. Wheew! Songs that use appropriated exact quotations are relatively rare. No such data on them exists so far as I know, but let us suppose only one in 5,000 fits the criteria. Now, any one person has not been exposed to all of those (Who the hell is “Information Society”?, I can hear the young-uns asking), perhaps the average music fan has only encountered one in 10 of them. Lastly, what are the chances the listener possesses the quoted media and experiences them both (nearly) simultaneously? For the former, the chances are actually quite high. Having long since passed into the public domain, Rip Van Winkle has been published as a story or as part of a collection many dozens of times. It’s published digitally through many projects such as Project Guttenberg. It appears, in full, on many websites and as the focus of many essays and articles. Let’s say that 50% of literate westerners have read the story. How likely was it for the song to be playing somewhere near to the moment the text was read? If by “often” the writer means once a day on average, and considering the average person listens to 82 songs a day, then assuming said person always has music on while dong light reading, we can estimate the chance at one in 82. That works out to about one in 8.2 million. This seems pretty darn unlikely, but there are some important caveats to think about that diminish the odds in ways that are difficult to calculate:

The odds of encountering a reference to Rip Van Winkle in one or more pieces of pop culture are better than you might think. Winkle is one of the most beloved and enduring pieces of 19th century fiction which is constantly turning up again and being retold. Google turns up 1.25 million hits and Wikipedia lists four songs by separate artists that reference the story. Major media franchises have retold it, including The Flintstones, The Twilight Zone, and of course the animated series Futurama, which is based entirely on the story. This observation increases the odds any artist will feature a reference, as well as the odds you would otherwise come across the references yourself, which brings me to a second caveat.

The odds are improved by what we might call the “clumpiness” of taste, the observation that our tastes do not vary arbitrarily and that we tend to like clumps of similar creative media. The reason you are listening to Belle & Sebastian five times this week is that you share some aspects of taste with those artists. It stands to reason the band and you might like these stories for the same reason, which is also part of the reason you’re listening to their disc on repeat to begin with. Web 2.0 media services like Netflix and Pandora produce recommendations based on such clumpiness of taste, and not without some success. One critic called the band’s work “wistful pop”, and perhaps not-so-coincidentally Van Winkle is a story rooted in dismay over the ugly necessity of the American Revolution. A wistful story, indeed.

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Edward Clint produces the Skeptic Ink Network and writes about Evolutionary Psychology, critical thinking and more at his blog Incredulous. He is a bioanthropology graduate student at UCLA studying evolutionary psychology.