Latest Entries »

(Submitted by Skepticality listener Shawn Wilson)

A shark in Canada was tagged.  It never broadcast its information successfully to the satellite, but (the tag) came loose after a couple months and was found years later on a beach in Wales.  The person who found it recognized it for what it was, and after considerable sleuthing, found the researchers.  It turns out, the person who found it knew the cousin of the researcher’s wife.

CBC News – Windsor

A satellite tagging device a Canadian researcher attached to a Greenland shark in the Arctic in 2012 and used to record migratory data was recently found washed up on a beach 6,000 kilometres away.

The tag was found in Wales, just a short distance from where the wife of the researcher used to spend her summers.

Based on the data they recovered from the device, Nigel Hussey determined it must have come off the animal in December of 2012 in the middle of the Davis Strait, between Baffin Island and Greenland, and floated all the way to Wales.

The devices are programmed to release from the shark, float to the surface and transmit data to a satellite, which the scientists can access from their labs.

The data helps paint a more complete picture of the animal’s behaviour. However, not all the data collected by the tag is transmitted to the satellite, so finding one is extremely rare and could prove to be a potential gold mine, Hussey said.

“We’ve never got one back before. It’s really fantastic,” said Hussey, a scientist in the Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research. “We never would have thought that after putting it out in such a remote place that it ever would have been found.”

This tag is of particular interest because it never transmitted any data to the satellite.

Hussey said satellite coverage in the remote area of the Arctic can be spotty.

“It just seemed to disappear,” Hussey said.

Although it only stayed on for three months, it still contains a wealth of information.

“This is the most detailed data we’ve ever had for a Greenland shark,” said Hussey.

Mari Williams found the tag March 6 during a volunteer beach cleanup on West Dale Bay in Pembrokeshire.

Hussey’s wife Anna’s family originates from nearby St. David’s, and that’s where she spent her summers as a teenager.

“I’ve still got an aunt, an uncle and several cousins there,” Anna Hussey said. “In fact, Mari knows one of my cousins. They used to work on one of the tourist boats there together.”

Not knowing what the device was, but suspecting it might have been a shark tag, Williams, who has an undergraduate degree in environmental science, posted a picture of the tag on Twitter and tweeted it at the Shark Trust, a shark conservation charity.

Simon Pierce, of Marine Megafauna Foundation, recognized the device and recommended she contact Wildlife Computers, the device’s manufacturer.

She sent them the serial number, and the Seattle-based company traced it back to Hussey.

“I just find the whole thing amazing,” Williams said from her home in Wales.


Below are the extended notes for use in Skepticality Episode 233 provided Edward Clint.  Clint produces the Skeptic Ink Network and writes about Evolutionary Psychology, critical thinking and more at his blog Incredulous. He is presently a bioanthropology graduate student at UCLA studying evolutionary psychology.  Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast for our own hilarious commentary.

Six Degrees of Canadian Bacon, or, The one that didn’t get away

There are two unlikely events in this story, though each is not quite a astronomical as you might think. First, what are the odds anyone would find the tracker, wherever it ended up? We can’t be sure how long the tracker was on that beach, but it must have taken a couple months to arrive. That leaves 6-9 months it might have been at the Westdale Bay Beach which is described as a “picturesque sandy beach” popular with surfers. Many hundreds of people might have seen the device, but only a person who recognized what it probably was, as Williams did, would have bothered to pick it up. Since Williams was part of a voluntary beach clean up activity, it’s no wonder someone policing the beach would take an interest in unusual bits that don’t belong there.

That being the case, what are the odds one UK dweller would happen to be related to another who knows the original researcher that placed the tracker? Not all that bad. The original “six degrees of separation” concept was popularized by psychologist Stanley Milgram. But in 2011 a University of Milan study determined any two people in the world are separated by an average of 4.7 acquaintances. (link: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/22/technology/between-you-and-me-4-74-degrees.html?_r=0) In Williams’s case, it’s about 2 degrees of separation from the researcher. But that’s only about three degrees more than you have. Or me. Or anyone.

Mosquito bits

(Submitted by reader Peter Jacobs)

I was recently driving home, listening to a Radiolab Podcast about mosquitoes, when I heard a statistic that was new to me. “Half of the people who have ever lived, have been killed by mosquito-borne diseases.” I was impressed.

Two HOURS later, I was watching an English T.V. show called “Q.I.” which is a comedy panel show about interesting facts. (“Quite Interesting”) To my surprize, the same fact was the answer to one of the questions on the show.


Below are the extended notes provided by cognitive psychologist and statistician Barbara Drescher for use in Skepticality Episode 232.  Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary. Also, visit Barbara’s blog.

There are sometimes “facts of the day” – things that people mention on shows because they heard it somewhere else and it kind of gets a life of its own. So it’s possible that someone writing for QI also listens to Radiolab. But even if they are totally unrelated, we encounter many of these things every day without noticing.

(Submitted by friend of the blog, Skepticality host Derek Colanduno)

So, this past Saturday Swoopy, my wife Susan, and I all jumped in the car to head out to a local restaurant for some dinner. On the way, Swoopy asked if I saw her last Facebook post. It was about the fact that she happened to be watching VH-1 in the background while studying for a test, and one of the videos that came on was by Nitzer Ebb. We both found that funny since we never knew that Nitzer Ebb had a video, let alone one which would make it all the way to VH-1. Heck, Nitzer Ebb wasn’t even popular enough in their ‘hay day’ to end up on TV of any sort. We had to tell my wife who the band was, not surprising since they aren’t much of a household name.

When we got home from dinner I went to check on my desktop computer. I had left it to do a full scan of all of my files so it could find all the ones which I had not looked at, or opened in over a couple years (just doing some digital spring cleaning).

Well, the file at the top of the list, the one which hadn’t been opened or changed the longest? That happened to be the .mp3 file for “Isn’t It Funny How Your Body Works”, the song by Nitzer Ebb. I have about 1.4 terabytes of files, .mp3 files take up about 400GB or so of that space. I had to make Swoopy come over to my screen so she could see what popped up at the top of my scan. She said, “Well, I DID say that the band is one that doesn’t get played much.”

Maybe the cosmos is telling the world to bring back strange 80’s metal-techno…..


Below are the extended notes provided by cognitive psychologist and statistician Barbara Drescher for use in Skepticality Episode 231.  Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary. Also, visit Barbara’s blog.

What makes this not a big coincidence is something that Derek shared in the story: they were surprised to see Nitzer Ebb because the band was obscure enough to be forgotten. One likely reason he hadn’t played that mp3 recently is that the band was obscure enough to be forgotten. It’s a cute story, but the odds are in the “sane” category. 😉

(Submitted by  blog reader, loyal Seahawks Season Ticket holder Bill Young)

Like everyone else here in Seattle, I watched the Superbowl and noticed more than a few coincidences.

  • Of course Seattle is home of the 12th man.
  • Superbowl XXLVIII (48)
  • 4 + 8 = 48
  • Seattle scored at 12 seconds into the game.
  • Seattle’s first touchdown was at 12:00 in the second quarter.
  • Seattle scored at 12 seconds into the second half.
  • Russell Wilson passed for 206 yards (206 is Seattle’s area code)
  • Seahawks final score 43 points
  • 4×3 = 12

What are the odds?

_____________________________________________________________________________

Below are the extended notes provided by cognitive psychologist and statistician Barbara Drescher for use in Skepticality Episode 230. Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast  for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary. Also, visit Barbara’s blog.

“The 12th man” refers to the fans. Teams are only allowed 11 players on the field at a time, but fans can affect the outcome of the game by cheering (it’s a subtle effect), so they call the fans “the 12th man”. I’m not sure how Seattle got to be known as “The Home of the 12th Man”.

The odds of all of those things happening are difficult to calculate, but not really worth examining. It’s a good example of post hoc data-mining and cherry-picking. He looked for things that relate to the number 12 and ignored all of the things that don’t. For example, what are the numbers of the players who scored? What was the score at the half? How many coaches were on the field? How many turnovers were there? Lots of numbers involved in the game don’t fit the idea that “12” is a special number that matches the Seahawk’s marketing campaign about the 12th man.

(Submitted by  blog reader John Hordyk)

What are the chances the two teams (from states) that legalized pot, both made it to the Super Bowl?

I came up with on in 509,600 to 1.

Fifty states could have legalized pot, if you assume two would, you have a 2450 to 1 chance it would be those two.

Twenty-two states that have football teams, so a chance that it would be those two, this will take a little longer to figure out.

Two hundred eight to one chances it would be these teams, so.

509,600 to one chance the two teams that legalized pot would be in the Super Bowl?

Is that right?

_____________________________________________________________________________

Below are the extended notes provided by cognitive psychologist and statistician Barbara Drescher for use in Skepticality Episode 230. Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast  for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary. Also, visit Barbara’s blog.

I think this is an interesting question, but I got a different answer from the author.

According to my calculations, there are 1225 ways to pick 2 from 50, so the chance of any two specific states legalizing pot (assuming that two would, which is a big assumption, but one we have to make) is 1 in 1225.If the Super Bowl teams were chosen at random (rather than performance), there are 231 ways to pick 2 from 22.We can then calculate the odds that both events will happen by multiplying them: .00082 x .00432 = .0000035.Pretty small! BUT… football teams making the Super Bowl and the passing of legislation like the legalization of pot are not random events. There are probably all kinds of factors which make these two things correlated, even if that correlation is extremely small. Even the smallest correlation can have a dramatic effect on the likelihood of the event.

Hockey Gods

(Submitted by  blog reader Joseph Gagne)

April is sports month at The Odds Must Be Crazy. In this entry, hockey pro Steve Sullivan gets heckled by a fan after an injury. A few minutes later, same fan gets smacked in the face with a hockey puck.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yootoZMCCOM

____________________________________________________________________________________

[Ed. Note: Sometimes one video is worth a thousand words. – Wendy]

(Submitted by Skepticality listener Garrett)

So, recently I was at the gym that I have been going to for the last ten years. This gym is convenient for me because it is about five minutes from where I regularly teach, however it is about 30 miles from my house driving east.

I befriended an acquaintance at the gym, maybe three or four years ago, and we have been getting to know one another little by little. Over the years I have learned many things about Chris – surprisingly that we have the same employer (but never ran into one another because we are in buildings on the opposite side of town – not that weird – a lot of people work there) among other things. I also learned that he lives about 30 miles north of me, but that we share the same supermarket halfway and just never saw one another there either, which would mean that he lives about 30 miles from work as well, albeit on the hypotenuse angle. Little things like that.

Two weeks ago, I was talking with him, and he was describing having a friend in the town I live in. As a matter of fact, he was the godfather of their child who is about three years old – a result of his being in a long term relationship with the uncle of the child, and becoming a very good family friend. Before I told him where I lived specifically, he describes how he gets to their house for perspective – it is the same exit, the same turns, and the same street as me.  As a matter of fact, it is my next door neighbor.

But that isn’t the strange coincidence.

The strange coincidence is that we are very good friends with these neighbors, and my son loves playing with their three children. My wife lets me sit out the children’s parties out of compassion for my sanity…  But it turns out that at all of the family gatherings, she has befriended the exact same acquaintance and has known him for years just as I have. Furthermore, we have told one another anecdotes about him, without ever mentioning him by name even though he has a very common one, and told one another that we should meet him and would get a real kick out of him!  We have had the same acquaintance for years, from completely different circumstances, and didn’t even know it!

Imagine his what his surprise would have been running into our family at the supermarket on a grocery run?

What are the odds of a married couple having a long term acquaintance in two different contexts, especially when a 90 mile perimeter triangle of geography is involved??


Below are the extended notes provided by cognitive psychologist and statistician Barbara Drescher for use in Skepticality Episode 229.  Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary. Also, visit Barbara’s blog.

It’s impossible to calculate the odds of this, given the number of variables involved. This is really fun story, and it is a shame that I have to ruin these great stories by focusing on what makes them less interesting, but that’s my job, so here goes:  There is one very important fact that makes this story much less “impressive” probablistically-speaking, and that’s the fact that similarity is attractive. We tend to like people we share interests, qualities, values, and identities with, and when we discover commonalities, the bonds grow stronger.

So, a married couple befriending (and liking) the same person is highly likely. That leaves only the coincidence that they both met this man years ago in situations which are likely to repeat opportunities for bonding. The conjunction of those events is clearly attached to a low probability, but not astronomical.

The Isolated Artist

(Submitted by blog reader Rick Stromoski)

In 1989 my wife and I moved to Connecticut from Los Angeles due to a job offer for her that we couldn’t refuse.

I was and currently am a free lance cartoonist who has always worked from home so it tends to be an isolated existence to begin with. To alleviate the feeling of stir craziness I would occasionally take classes with the idea of getting out of my studio but also possibly learn something new.

I enrolled in a night Illustration class at Central Connecticut University and the instructor’s name was Dana Schrieber. When taking attendance for the first time he came across my name and hesitated. He asked if I had a brother Robert who lived in Los Angeles and I answered in the affirmative. He then told me that he once owned a small gallery in Los Angeles and represented my brother Bobby’s work in the early 1970s . An interesting coincidence given that it was over 15 years and 3,000 miles and we met on the whim that I’d take a night class and he was the instructor. The class ended and that was the last I’d seen of Mr. Schreiber.

Fast forward to the year 2011. My then 16 year old daughter Molly was a junior attending a prep school in Northern Connecticut and met a boy and they started dating. We liked the young man very much and soon we were making plans to meet his mother and her steady boyfriend over dinner. Turns out when we arrived at the young man’s house the steady boyfriend was none other than the same Dana Schreiber who taught that illustration class I’d taken back in 1989. We were all amused at the coincidence but it also afforded me the opportunity to complain about the “B” he gave me for the class.

_____________________________________________________________________________

Below are the extended notes provided by cognitive psychologist and statistician Barbara Drescher for use in Skepticality Episode 228. Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast  for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary. Also, visit Barbara’s blog.

This story is adorable. I can’t think of all that much to say about it that’s interesting, but there are the usual culprits. We tend to forget that factors such as an interest or occupation (in this case, art) increases the probability of running into people who know the people we know. There is also the fact that if it was a friend and not a brother, the author may never have discovered that the teacher was connected because the teacher wouldn’t have recognized his name. Think about how many times that has probably happened in your own life.

In general, we all tend to share interests and values with our family members, the people we work with, and the people we call friends. We are more like those people than we are like random strangers. And those interests and values attract us to others. So, people tend to “cluster”, even if those clusters are large.

(Submitted by friend of the blog Emery Emery)

Local News

SAN CLEMENTE, Calif. – Marion Shurtleff believes in miracles.

In December, the 75-year-old San Clemente, Calif., resident found a piece of her childhood from Covington, Ky., tucked in the pages of a used Bible she purchased at a bookstore near her home.

“I opened the Bible and there was my name,” Shurtleff said in a phone interview from her home. “I recognized my handwriting. I was shaking, literally. I was crying.”

What Shurtleff found was an essay she wrote for her Covington Girl Scout troop when she was 10-years-old.

“It’s three pages, almost four. This was the requirement for the foot traveler badge.”

Shurtleff remembers going to Girl Scouts on Fridays while she attended Fourth District Elementary in Covington. She would go on to graduate from Holmes High School before moving to California for the first time in 1963.

In the essay, she found a detailed account her 10-year-old self gave of a day’s hike through the city that included a meeting of her troop at Trinity Episcopal Church on Madison Avenue.

“We left at 10 in the morning. We went to Devou Park and went around where we had camped the prior year. We walked back to the church and then I took a streetcar home about 4 in the afternoon,” Shurtleff said, summarizing her trip.

Her favorite part of the whole letter she said, was an editorial comment she left in a brief paragraph.

“’We were well provisioned,’” Shurtleff read from the letter. She goes on to describe how each member of the troop had a compass, lunch, and backpack.

“All my friends laughed, and said, yes Marion, that’s you, well provisioned.”

Shurtleff said there was no other clue as to how the Bible carrying her letter ended up in California. The only clue on the letter itself was the name, “Bonnie Gene Edwards,” who she believes was an assistant at her school.

Besides the letter, Shurtleff said she was surprised by the attention she’s received since her story originally ran in the Orange County Register. A local television station, CBS 2 picked up on it and then the Internet.

“I was surprised when the church secretary sent me the email saying it made it to Yahoo,” she said.

Since then, a genealogist and church group has attempted to contact her.

Shurtleff said she would like to know the history of the Bible she purchased. She also added she’s heard speculation that perhaps she always had the letter and possibly forgot it

“I’ve moved too many times. I’ve been down to bare bones. That Bible could have been in Timbuktu, or Alaska. I believe it’s God showing His Grace to us and His love, making us aware that there are stranger things that happen.”

________________________________________________________________________________

Below are the extended notes provided by cognitive psychologist and statistician Barbara Drescher for use in Skepticality Episode 227. Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast  for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary. Also, visit Barbara’s blog.

I love this story for several reasons. First, let’s talk about the odds of this happening. There are many factors to consider, some of which Wendy suggested, which involve knowing the history of the book itself. The way I see it, the odds of this happening are extremely small in any case, but many times smaller in some cases than others.

Sixty-five years passed between the time Ms. Shurtleff wrote the essay and when she found it in the Bible. I think it’s reasonable to assume that the essay was placed in the Bible, for safekeeping or perhaps as a bookmark, shortly after she wrote it. This would undoubtedly be in Kentucky. But we can only speculate about how the Bible ended up in a bookstore in California, and how that happened is important in determining the odds that Ms. Shurtleff would find it.

The least shocking possibility is that the Bible once belonged to Ms. Shurtleff, it moved with her from Kentucky to California, and she got rid of it at some point afterward. It is reasonable that she simply didn’t recognize it. If that is what happened, the odds that Ms. Shurtleff would choose and buy that particular Bible are much, much higher than if she had never seen that Bible before. We tend to favor the familiar, even if we aren’t aware that something is familiar.

This would still be a shocking story unless Ms. Shurtleff frequents the store where she bought the Bible. In that case I would have to speculate that the Bible was among books that she sold to the store at some point, or to a neighbor, perhaps in a garage sale, who then sold it to the store.

However, after reading the story, what seems most likely to me is that the essay was left behind during a troop meeting at the church and was placed in one of the Bibles there and forgotten. It must then have been purchased by someone who moved to California at some point. This would make the probability of it finding Ms. Shurtleff very, very low and dependent upon the rates of migration from Kentucky to California during those sixty-five years as well as how often Bibles are sold or given away.

But there are two other interesting thoughts I have about this story. One is a question: why was the essay still there after sixty-five years? This suggests that the Bible was rarely used. Then again, it was discarded, unless it was acquired after its owner passed away.

Finally, I have to wonder about Ms. Shurtleff’s explanation for what happened. She is quoted as saying, “I believe it’s God showing His Grace to us and His love, making us aware that there are stranger things that happen.” If God wanted to show Ms. Shurtleff a miracle, why did he choose such a mundane document, a merit badge assignment? Why not a love letter or some other meaningful document?

(Submitted by Friend of the Blog, Brian Hart.)

Late last night, I heard that a friend, Eric Broze, had died.  I got onto the social media and shared my sorrow with my friends who knew Eric and his lovely wife, and now, sadly, widow, Rose Schwartz.

As an Atheist, I think he is gone forever, his light gone out and will not be rekindled.  It was nice to swap stories and reminisce about this good guy gone way too soon.

This morning, as I was cleaning up my office, I decided to listen to an episode of the podcast Ardent Atheist.  I wasn’t paying much attention as I chose an older show at random, I probably have about 15 backlogged shows that I have not yet heard.  I clicked on show # 133, from about 4 months ago and began to clean.  The hosts, Emery Emery and Heather Henderson announced that week’s guests, among them Eric Broze and Rose Schwartz.

If I were a religious man, I might think that this was Eric’s method of contacting me from the “Other Side”.  However, from my point of view, this is simply a coincidence, and it WAS nice to hear Eric’s voice once more.

My condolences to Rose, and goodbye to Eric.


[Editor: Thanks to Brian for this kind tribute to our dear friend. – Wendy]