Category: Stories


Kidney compatibility

(Submitted by blog reader David Read)

About 9 months ago, my wife learned that she might need a kidney transplant. For most of her life she has endured reduced kidney function due to several infections suffered while she was a teenager. But in September, she learned that her kidney function (GFR) had dropped to 13 (out of 100). Usually, when someone’s GFR falls below 15, they become a transplant candidate. With this precipitous drop in function (her previous GFR had been in the 30’s), we thought we had only a few weeks before she would need to start dialysis.

We attended several day-long classes in which we learned about  the different types of dialysis and to get an understanding of the transplant process (getting on “the list”, looking for a living donor, awaiting a cadaver donor, etc). We learned that if we waited for a cadaver donor, it could be up to 7 years before she would make it to the top of the list and then would have to wait for a matched donor kidney to become available. Obviously, the solution would be to find a live (and willing) donor. In the class we learned that the best chance of finding a match would be with a sibling. Luckily, my wife has 2 – a brother and a sister.

The process of “matching” is fairly straightforward. First, the donor has to be the same blood type, in this case O. The Rh factor is not important. After the blood type is matched, samples of the donor’s and recipient’s blood are drawn and compared. There are 6 antigens that can determine whether a donated kidney will be accepted or not. A perfect match is when all 6 are compatible.

My wife’s siblings agreed to be tested but neither of them even knew their blood type. Surprisingly, neither did their doctors! My wife and I know our types because we have given blood and the Red Cross lets you know your type. We suggested that her sibs donate a pint of blood to 1) do a good deed and 2) learn their blood type for free. After much hand wringing and delays, we learned that both her sibs had blood type A – neither were a donor candidate.

In the meantime, our daughter determined that she was type O and she and my wife went in together to test for a match. During the matching process, only the donor is given the results. This is to protect the donor from any extra pressure from family members or the recipient. For instance, if after finding that they are a match a donor has a change of heart (no pun intended), they are the only ones who know that they matched in the first place. However, when our daughter received the news that she matched, she was ecstatic and called her mom right away.  She really wanted to be the one who helped her mom through this crisis.  However, there was one more hurtle to be cleared – the ultrasound.

After a match is found, the donor must undergo an ultrasound to determine the health, location and number of kidneys (yes, some people are born with one kidney, and some even with three!). Our daughter’s ultrasound results were devastating – for her. She had kidney stones and therefore could not be a donor. On the positive side, she learned of this issue long before it became a problem and has taken care of it. But, that didn’t help my wife.

However, our son-in-law decided that if his wife couldn’t donate, perhaps he could. After determining that he had the correct blood type , he went in for the compatibility tests. This was quite a decision for him because he has an aversion to seeing his own blood and these compatibility tests require that 6 – 8 vials of blood be drawn. But when the results came back – he was a match also! And the ultrasound found no irregularities. So the question is, what are the odds of BOTH a child AND their spouse being a matched kidney donor for a parent?


Below are the extended notes provided by cognitive psychologist and statistician Barbara Drescher for use in Skepticality Episode 218.  Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary. Also, visit Barbara’s blog.

First, there is a sticky problem of the probability that any donor will be healthy enough. I could not find a criterion or probability value for that, so I will have to leave it out of any calculation.

Second, the author discussed HLA matching as if it was an all-or-none deal according to several sources, including the LivingKidney Donors Network, it is no longer standard practice to use HLA matching as a factor to determine whether a donor is compatible. As it turns out, an exact match is best, but not necessary. Furthermore, there is little statistical difference in the survival rates among recipients with 5/6 and 0/6 matches, thanks to newer, better anti-rejection drugs (yeah science!).

For that reason, unless there is a perfect match, donor compatibility relies on the result of a number of tests of complex cell interactions to determine whether the recipient’s body will reject the organ.This is important, because the rest of what I will say here makes the prospect of finding a kidney donor look like finding Waldo in Santa’s workshop.

All of that said, the author suggested that both the daughter and son-in-law were perfect HLA matches, so we have enough information to at least estimate the odds, assuming that everyone involved is healthy.

The six antigens which have been identified as important for transplant are inherited from our parents, half from each. This makes a sibling the best possible chance for a perfect match, not a child, but a child is better than a stranger.

A perfect match with an unrelated donor carries odds of one in 100,000, or a probability of .00001. Since the daughter received half of hers from her mother, she is at least a 50% match, doubling the probability that she is a perfect match to .00002.So, the probability that both the daughter AND her husband would be “perfect matches” in terms of HLA compatibility is .00001 times .00002, or .00000000002 (5 million to one).

(Submitted by friend of the blog Spencer Marks)

I was just finishing watching a movie with my son and as the credits were rolling, I got a text from a friend in Seattle. We engaged in a few back-and-forth messages, and to make a point about something, she told me to look up Ken Kesey, a name I had never heard before.

I turned to my laptop which was beside me, looked up Ken Kesey, and quickly found that he was the author of the book, “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest.” My jaw almost dropped, as that was the movie I had just finished watching and whose credits were rolling!

My friend in Seattle could not have known that I had been watching that movie as I am in Los Angeles and there had been no conversation about it prior to that. Since the movie was made in 1975, and this story happened in August of 2013, it wasn’t like the movie was fresh on everyone’s minds!


Below are the extended notes provided by cognitive psychologist and statistician Barbara Drescher for use in Skepticality Episode 217.  Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary. Also, visit Barbara’s blog.

This coincidence is impossible to quantify for several reasons. Depending on how we frame the question, the probability of this occurring depends on the number of films one could have been watching at the time as well as the number of authors the friend could have mentioned.

However, there are things to take note of in this story. One bit that we often fail to consider when something like this happens is that the the author’s friend clearly knows the author well. She suspected that the author would enjoy Ken Kesey’s work and, apparently, she was right! That part is not a coincidence, but the timing surely is.

(Submitted by reader, Kyle Delaney)

Before it was popular, on my 11th birthday I received the first Harry Potter book from my now-dead grandmother who had not read it.

It is on Harry Potter’s 11th birthday that Hagrid bursts his door down to tell him he’s a wizard. My birthday, July 31st, is the same as Harry Potter’s.


[EDITOR:  Sometimes it’s just as much fun to enjoy the coincidence as a fun story. By the way, the contributor sent us this coincidence story on his birthday. In case you don’t know who Harry Potter is, look here.  – Wendy]

 

Fly like a beagle

(Submitted by reader David Buck)

I work in an office tower that’s connected to a shopping mall. Yesterday I was taking a break from work by going to the grocery store and buying a tray of vegetables for a healthy snack. When I arrived at that section of the store, I saw a friend of mine there who I’d known for about 30 years.

“Hi” I said.
“Hey,” he replies, “you have a birthday coming up soon.”
“Yea,” I answer, “but I’ll be out of town that day.”
“I have a scary birthday coming up” he says. “I’m turning 50”.
“Been there, done that,” I say. “It’s not such a big deal. It’s just another day”.
“Well,” he answers. “You know what they say… ‘Time keeps on slippin’ slippin’ slippin’ into the future’. Then it’s something like ‘I want to fly like a beagle to the sea’ – you know bark, bark, splash.”
“I didn’t know beagles could fly” I said.

We both chuckled and I went to the cash to pay for my vegetable tray.  I left the store and walked outside to enter the mall near my office tower and all the time I had that song running through my head.  When I entered the mall again, the music that plays constantly in the mall had just started playing “Time keeps on slippin’ slippin’ slippin’ into the future.” I just shook my head and thought “the odds must be crazy”.


Below are the extended notes provided by Ed Clint for use in Skepticality Episode 216.  Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary.

The odds might be crazy, or maybe they’re simply stressed and in need of a holiday. Judging by the letters we get, song coincidences are common, or at least more so than other sorts. Consideration of the “raw-ish” odds sheds some light on this. If you picked a song at random, what are the odds of hearing it played by an independent music-player such as a mall? The company Gracenote catalogs music, and lists over 100 million songs. However, that number includes duplicates, international, and independent music. Perhaps more relevant are the libraries of streaming music services because they will only pay to stock music people are likely to want: LastFM houses 12 million, Rdio 18 million, Spotify 20 million, and Pandora offers about a million unique songs. Conservatively, we might say there are 20 million pop songs “in the ether” that people regularly wish to listen to. This number is still far too high for our story. A shopping mall won’t play hits from the ’40s or Gangsta Rap, as much as we might want to hum “Cop Killer” to ourselves when perusing khaki slacks. Those genres are included in every streaming music service, but really a store manager is going to confine musical choices to playlists including only the relatively recent (’90s and forward), songs that charted, and those which are G-rated and inoffensive. Not so coincidentally, these are also the sorts of songs an acquaintance is most likely to cite in public conversation.

That cuts down the number substantially. There are no more than 20,000 songs that could fit that description. What about the other half of the problem, how likely is it an acquaintance would mention *any* song to you on a given day? Unless you’re on the cast of Glee, hard to say. Surely somewhere south of a percentage point make our best-case odds less than 1 in two million, and probably much less than that.

However, it is possible there was very little real coincidence at all. Commercial music services that provide tunage to stores, and even radio stations have a much smaller and more rigid weekly playlist than you might think: 150-200 songs replayed throughout the week. Many (like myself) who have worked in retail can confirm hearing the same songs repeatedly. Since we know the grocer works very close to the mall, it’s not unlikely he had been there recently. Since his own birthday was near, hearing the song would have stuck in his head, consciously or subconscious.

____________________________________________________________________________________________

Edward Clint produces the Skeptic Ink Network and writes about Evolutionary Psychology, critical thinking and more at his blog Incredulous. He is presently an intern at the JREF and a bioanthropology graduate student at UCLA studying evolutionary psychology.

(Submitted by reader Andrew Law)

To start with, I live in New Zealand which is important to know for this story.

When I was 11 years old my family and our good friends who lived a couple of houses down the street, took a once in a lifetime trip to Disneyland in LA. We took a week off school to do this.

We were all having a ball in Disneyland as to be expected, when it was time to have some lunch outside of the park; so we jumped on the mono-rail.

After sitting down I looked up and sitting on the seat opposite was the teacher from the class next to mine back in NZ, and who also happened to be the teacher of the friend that was with me! As you can imagine he asked my friend why he wasn’t in school.


Below are the extended notes provided by Barbara Drescher for use in Skepticality Episode 215.  Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary.

It seems that we all have an amazing travel story like this one. On the one hand, it is possible that all of the parties were prompted to consider visiting Disneyland by the same advertisements or because someone else in their town visited and that may increase the probability of such an occurrence by a great deal. The distance between New Zealand and Los Angeles increases the shock of such an event as well. On the other hand, the odds are still pretty astronomical that they would visit the same immensely crowded place at the same time and enter the monorail in the same place at the same time. I am always amazed by these stories and I often wonder how many times I passed by someone I know while far from home and just didn’t see them.  As with other travel stories like this, I can only say that it would be unusual if we did not experience many low-probability events in our lifetime.

On a less serious note, is anyone else wondering why the teacher wasn’t in school?


Barbara Drescher is a cognitive psychologist and statistician. Visit her blog ICBSEverywhere.  As a lecturer at California State University, Northridge,  Barbara primarily taught courses in quantitative/experimental research methods and topics in cognitive psychology. She currently serves as educational programs consultant for the James Randi Educational Foundation.

Circling a Coincidence

(Submitted by reader David Sauder.)

Last month I arranged with an old friend that our families would meet for a picnic lunch near Ampthill, about 80 kilometres north of London.

Aerial View of Millbrook Proving Ground

I am not all familiar with that area (I’m from Canada, and we are living in London temporarily).  I looked at the satellite view of Google maps to see what type of landscape we would be lunching in.  On the satellite view I could see a large nearby circle, which was about one kilometre in diameter.  This perfect circle looked like a road, and had smaller roads and roundabouts inside it.

I wondered what it was, so at the picnic I asked my friend. He didn’t know what it was. We tried to see it from the hilltop where we were eating, but couldn’t find it. I figured I’d do some more searching later to satisfy my curiosity and left it at that.

A couple of days later we left for a family vacation at Disney World, in Orlando.  One of the first rides we took was a “Test Track” ride at EPCOT.  This ride is a simulation of a vehicle test track. Before getting on board the vehicle, the next group of ‘drivers’ is brought into a large room where they stand and watch a video that explains what to expect during the ride. As the video was ending, and the lights in the room were fading to black, I noticed the picture hanging on the wall right behind me. It was an aerial photograph of my ‘mystery circle’. As the room went black, I had just enough time to read the label on the bottom of the picture, which said “Millbrook Proving Ground”.  When I got home, I looked it up and that’s exactly what that circle was.


[EDITOR:  Sometimes it’s fun to just read the coincidence story without any analysis. This one is a cutie. Submit your own coincidence story when you are visiting The Odds Must Be Crazy. Click on the Submit a Story link on our homepage! – Wendy]

Pictures of Pugs!

(Submitted by reader Jenny)

I work as a dogsitter part time, and for the past month, I’ve been taking two pugs, Tristan and Phinneas, to the Culver City dog park about twice a week.

Today I was browsing BuzzFeed articles and came across this one about excited dogs:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mattbellassai/animals-that-cannot-even-handle-it-right-now

I was scrolling through, and at #17 saw the picture of a pug playing with a corgi. The pug, his harness, and the background looked like Tristan at the dog park, so I zoomed in and saw that he had the same (distinctive) pattern on his collar as Tristan!

After seeing the collar, I was sure that the picture was of Tristan, but there are other people who take those pugs to the park, so I didn’t know if I had been there that day. I went to an email I had sent to their owner a few weeks ago and saw that the video I’d attached was of Tristan playing with that same corgi! You can even see the girl with the camera walk into it in the last few frames!

As a sub-coincidence, that same day at the park, Tristan was bitten by a pit bull puppy (he was fine), and a few days later when I went to turn in some paperwork into an office at my school, the form-acceptance girl recognized me as the one whose pug got attacked, and it turns out she was the corgi’s owner, and the one who took the picture I later saw on buzzfeed!

I see this as a quintuple coincidence, composed of the following occurrences:
– I randomly came across a photo on the internet of a dog I know.
– The photo was taken on one of the 9 times I was with him.
– I am able to verify having been there by having taped the same encounter between the dogs.
– The person who took the photo happens to appear in my one 9 second video.
– The photographer works at my school, though neither of us recognized each other at the time.

As far as numbers, there are usually about 30 dogs at the park. I’ve been there 9 times, and have only seen a couple of people or dogs I recognized from prior visits. I have only taken pictures/videos of the pugs twice, so my collection consists of two photos and two videos. Aside from the pugs, I sit for other pets about twice a month, but the pugs go to the dog park.

I am a student at the UCLA School of Dentistry, and my school only has about 400 students and a similarly-sized staff. The dog park is one of two within 20 minutes of UCLA (and is the further of the two). Unfortunately, no data yet on the number of dog photos or buzzfeed articles I encounter per day!


Below are notes provided by cognitive psychologist and statistician Barbara Drescher.   Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, visit Barbara’s blog.

Let’s address the items that the author is excited about:

“- I randomly came across a photo on the internet of a dog I know.”

The author did not come across this photo “randomly”. Buzzfeed is an extremely popular site. In fact, I’m not even sure that it’s a coincidence that I saw this very post just last week, even though it was posted in March and it is now September. It’s a hilarious post, by the way. I highly recommend clicking that link; you won’t be sorry!

It also stands to reason that many of the content providers for Buzzfeed live in the LA area, given that it remains a large market for those working in entertainment.

“- The photo was taken on one of the 9 times I was with him.”

This is a bit of a coincidence, but not as much as the author probably thinks. It feels personal because it happened to her, but someone had to have been walking that dog when its picture was taken and the author is a dog sitter.

“- I am able to verify having been there by having taped the same encounter between the dogs.
– The person who took the photo happens to appear in my one 9 second video.”

Although there is some coincidence here, there is also the fact that the dogs were acting in a matter that made two people pull out their cameras.  I know that if I’d seen that cuteness, I’d have been shooting it, too.

“- The photographer works at my school, though neither of us recognized each other at the time.”

Keeping in mind that geography accounts for a lot of what looks like random chance, this is still probably the most interesting coincidence on the list, statistically speaking.


[EDITOR:  I’m with Barb on this – dog lovers, click on that link! – Wendy]

 

Kitty Mervine

(Submitted by friend of the blog, Kitty Mervine, of Yankee Skeptic.)

really hate to share this with my skeptic friends. It sounds too far fetched. It should be noted, I never believed this was anything paranormal.  I had a dear friend Mary.  She was godmother to my 2 children. When our husbands were in the Navy, we ended up best friends. We were so close that when my daughter Evelyn was born, Mary was my Lamaze partner.  (My husband was out at sea for the birth.)  Through the years we kept in close touch.  Our families would visit.  It was with great happiness that we discovered we were both pregnant at the same time. Her daughter was born on Mother’s Day, and she joked my child would be born on Father’s Day. Sure enough (2 weeks overdue) my child was born on Father’s Day! Now, that would be weird coincidence enough. The odds of that are pretty far fetched. But we both just thought it was fun, and yet another bond between us.

Mary and infant Evelyn

Sadly, Mary was diagnosed with cancer a few years later. I didn’t worry too much as she had a form of cancer that was 90% curable. We all just assumed the 10% that died were elderly or weak in some way. For a young woman in her 30s that never smoked, was thin, and rarely drank, we assumed a cure of 100%. I made of point of staying in touch more than ever, because the treatment was really tough.

One Friday night I woke up at 2am and woke up my husband.  I told him, “l can’t sleep, I’m really worried about Mary.”  I’d never done this before.  He said he could see I was trembling. When he turned on a light, I was pale and simply crying out of control.  He calmed me down and reminded me she was still working full time and doing very well.  The next day I received a call that Mary was in the hospital.

She had contracted a cold and as a precaution went into the hospital; however, something had gone wrong.  Very wrong.  She was in a coma, and was most likely brain dead. Her husband was expecting to pull life support. It was totally out of the blue, more of a bad reaction to her treatment than the cancer. My own doctor later pointed out that odds mean nothing, at least not when you are in the 10%.  One of of ten that have this type of cancer will die. Mary died. I never could explain why I woke up in the middle of the night so scared.  But I also never attributed it to anything other than perhaps simply the stress of worrying over a friend and coincidence.  I was worried about her, but did not say or feel she was going to die.

My husband and I flew out to attend her funeral. It was probably the toughest thing I’d ever been through up to that point. Her three-year-old daughter didn’t get that mommy wasn’t going to respond to her cry for her to “Wake up!” at the viewing. The unfairness of life really washed over me. I couldn’t believe I had not only lost a dear friend; I had also lost the only person that shared memories with me about the birth of my first child.

In response to that desperation to keep her in my life, I dreamed about her almost every night. Finally, months later, when I felt myself recovering, I had a dream where she knocked on my front door. I answered it, and told her “Mary, you are going to have to leave me alone now.  I’m so sad when you come visit every night and I wake up and you are still dead.” In my dream she turned and walked away.  Sure enough, she has rarely since appeared in a dream. I know, rationally, that this was probably a way for me to slowly let go of my friend. Her death was so unexpected, I think I needed those months of dreams to adjust.  I never thought I was really communicating with her in my dreams. She was just in my thoughts so much during the months following her death, that it was perfectly natural she should inhabit my dreams for a bit.

About a year later,  I scared my husband when much the same thing happened again. His father was ill with lung cancer. He had been doing as well as one can with that illness. The cancer had not become any larger, and he had only recently stopped working. He was expected to do well for many months more. Once again  I woke up in the middle of the night quite upset. I was worried about his father.  Mark was “not again!” and got me back to sleep. That day, sure enough, we got a call his father has had a heart attack. His mother had a “do not resuscitate” order.  At this point my husband was looking at me really oddly.  I kept assuring him I was not paranormal. Certainly in his dad’s case there was much more reason for worry.

When my husband’s cousin, and my good friend, also became ill with cancer I was a bit nervous. Waking up in the middle of the night crying was not fun. I kept in close touch with her. I sent gifts, letters and books. One day I sent off a package with a dressy purse for her to take on a cruise through the Panama Canal. I got home from the post office to a phone call that my friend had died. While sad, there was also a sense of relief. I, of course, knew I had no special power to know when someone was going to die; but, three events would have been most uncomfortable.

Since then, others close to me have died. I have never again been even close to knowing when the end would come.  One thing that I found did keep me grounded during the two events was the thought that there was no purpose or good in my “knowing” when someone was about to die. When psychics make vague predictions, I’ve always said to the believers “But aren’t words from beyond that are so vague and general even worse than no word at all?” Why tell the police that a body is “in or near water”?  There are so many bodies of water, including bathtubs and pools, that it is as good as no help. Since my premonition or feeling about two deaths had no rhyme or reason, I choose to accept it as simply “one of those things”. Though I have to admit my husband still looks at me a little oddly at times, and not just when I serve “Sauerkraut Cake” (it’s good!) http://allrecipes.com/recipe/german-chocolate-sauerkraut-cake/


[EDITOR:  Kitty was remembered by James Randi in the keynote address of TAM 2013 for extraordinary service to the skepticism community. – Wendy]

 

 

Hit or Miss

(Submitted by reader Alex Murdoch)

I got home from work today and was getting ready to cook a stir fry for dinner for the family. There was lots of noise, so I decided to put on my MP3 player and catch up on some podcasts.

Turns out I was all caught up, so I switched over to music and put my player on shuffle. A few song later I was feeling pretty good and singing along at a good volume. The song I was belting out was “Too Much Time on My Hands” by Styx.

My wife comes in and taps me on the shoulder. I took my right earbud out and she says:”What are the odds of that?” She pointed to her tablet where she was listening to Slacker Radio: Classic Rock. You can probably guess what was playing…yup. Styx: Too Much Time on My Hands.

I’ve got just over 800 songs on my player. So…help me answer my wife: What are the odds of that?


Below are the extended notes provided by Ed Clint for use in Skepticality Episode 213.  Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary.

Ironically, almost everyone can remember a version of this sort of “million to one” experience. Such as when someone picks up their phone to call someone only to have it ring by way of said someone or hearing your name called out in a waiting room to find out a second person with yours or a very similar name is also waiting. I once found a comment left on the Reddit social news website left by my brother. It was just one comment out of tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands posted that day to hundreds of discussions, most of which I never look at, and of the ones that I do, I could only see a fraction of the individual comments. The operant psychological mechanism is a form of confirmation bias, the attributing of meaning to events that merely coincide. After all, how many times does anyone note failures of coincidence in their life? How do we even guess at the number of failed coincidences? How could we check? What are the odds?

One music player had 800 songs and the other was playing from a “classic rock” mix. We can’t be sure how many tracks were in rotation in the mix, or which were favored because that depends on the listener’s previous choices. For the sake of argument, let’s conservatively estimate the Styx track was one of 1200 that might be in regular rotation. This would meant that at any one time both people were listening to music (assuming the Slacker Radio listener had selected “Classic Rock”), the odds are 1 in just under a million. If the Slacker Radio listener only likes “Classic Rock” occasionally, let’s say just 1/5 of the time she listens to music, the odds become closer to one in 5 million.

That sounds pretty unlikely, until you consider that none of the details have been specified in advance. In statistics, probability is the chance of a given outcome divided by the number of possible outcomes. So we can say the chance of a flipped coin landing on heads is .5 because there are two possible outcomes and heads is one of them. In our musical example: how can we decide what the meaning of “given outcome” or “possible outcomes” is? It’s cheating to decide after the fact, because the odds of any two songs playing simultaneously are equal to the odds of the same song playing on both sources. Instead, it is our intuitive psychology that defines what is meant by “unlikely hit” which casts the roles for expected and given outcomes.

Humans are pattern-seeking critters because nature rewards the pattern seekers: weather, climate, animal migration, and the co-location of flowers and bees with fruits and honey are all that dots it pays Darwinian dividends to be able to connect. The pattern sense necessarily registers false positives, connecting irrelevant dots. Now we can define the terms more clearly: the “given outcome” is any event that a person might experience that triggers the pattern recognizer and the “possible outcomes” are the set of events a person might experience which might trigger the pattern recognizer, but happens not to.

On the day the same songs played, the two people might have ordered the same improbable lunch, been humming the same theme to a beloved 80’s TV show, or stumbled on the same obscure internet article. If these events coincided, they’d each trigger the “what are the odds?” pattern recognizer sense. How many other potential “one in 5 million”-ish events might have happened but didn’t? This is difficult to guess, but I suspect hundreds or more, multiplied by any two people that may interact. When multiplied by 365 days, the odds get decidedly saner.

For the sake of argument, let’s restrict our consideration to musical coincidence. One in five million is steep, but then we only heard from this person and not one of the other 115 million households in the US (assuming this person is American). If our rough estimate is correct, the odds are that 23 other pairs of people have the same experience on days they feel like playing some tunes.

Edward Clint co-created the Skeptic Ink Network with John Loftus and writes about Evolutionary Psychology, critical thinking and more at his blog Incredulous. He is presently an intern at the JREF and a bioanthropology graduate student at UCLA studying evolutionary psychology.

A Tale of a First TAMmer

(Submitted by reader Jim Preston)

I went to my first ever The Amazing Meeting this year, held at the Southpoint Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. It was not only my first TAM, it was my first skeptical meeting of any kind. When I arrived, I went to the front desk to check in. I asked if I could have a particularly quiet room, away from the ice machine and the elevator. That was the only input that I had into which room I would get. When the desk clerk told me my room number I was amazed that the four digits were the year I was born.

So what are the odds that I’d be given a room whose number is the year I was born? According to their website, the Southpoint has 2163 rooms. So the simple odds are one out of 2163. Now, if I was someone who travelled a lot and stayed in hotels with at least 19 floors a lot, I’d say that this was bound to happen sooner or later. But I almost never stay in a large hotel. I’ve probably stayed in a 19+ floor hotel less than a dozen times in my life. So the odds that one of those times I would get my birth year room is more like 12 out of whatever the average number of rooms in those dozen hotels is, probably something in the one to two thousand range. Still rather long odds.

What I find most interesting about this is how much, even though I was a good skeptic and I knew it was just a coincidence, I found myself wanting to believe that there was some kind of significance in getting my birth year as my room number at my first ever skeptical meeting.

But maybe it was just an opportunity to apply my skepticism. But see, I said “opportunity”; I’m still phrasing it in terms of some kind of meaning.


Below are the extended notes provided by Barbara Drescher for use in Skepticality Episode 212.  Take a look and leave your comments below. Also, please be sure to listen to the podcast for our own sarcastic and hilarious commentary.

The author of this story did an excellent analysis himself. Even if we only consider the question of the odds of getting a single, specific room number on this specific occasion, at one in 2163, it’s much, much greater than winning the jackpot on any of the slot machines.

But the one thing that is most important to keep in mind is that it’s post-hoc thinking to even consider these odds. What if the room number wasn’t the year of his birth, but the last four digits of his SSN or phone number? Or his street address at home? Our lives are filled with numbers that hold significance for us. The odds of getting a room number that matches some other number of significance are actually quite high–much higher than if we chose one beforehand and tried to predict the incident.