• Apocalypse or Anticlimax — Election 2016 Final Models

    A concise collection of election day final forecasts from reasonably reputable analysts, for future reference.

    Mostly focused on electoral vote (EV) projections, for constitutional reasons. All forecasts as of this morning, Feb 8th, 0900 CST.

    Princeton Election Consortium

    Clinton 307 EV, Trump 231 EV, Clinton win probability: 99%

    Oddly enough, PEC’s current histogram is significantly less bullish on Clinton than their current stated probability.

    The Upshot (NYT)

    Clinton win probability: 84%

    Upshot doesn’t report EV estimates, but their histogram peaks somewhere between 310-350 EV for Clinton.

    Daily Kos

    Clinton 323 EV, Trump 215 EV, Clinton win probability: 92%



    Clinton 302 EV, Trump 235 EV, Clinton win probability: 71.4%


    Side note: How to tell 538’s model apart from the others:

    Prediction: Nate will soon regret saying this.

    Sabato Crystal Ball

    Clinton 322 EV, Trump 216 EV

    Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

    Looking forward to seeing who came closest to projecting reality.

    If you know of any other prediction models worth sharing, please leave a comment below.

    Category: Current EventsDamned Lies and Statistics

    Article by: Damion Reinhardt

    Former fundie finds freethought fairly fab.