A little while back, I mentioned my tiny (but reasonably functional) toy model of the electoral college.
Based on the state-level poll averages as of yesterday evening, here are the most likely results, in histogram form:
— Skeptic Ink (@SkepticInk) November 2, 2016
This chart is based on 10,000 iterations of the model, such that a bar of height 500 represents a 5% chance.
In case you are wondering—and I’m sure you must be—the cumulative probability of everything to the left of 270 electoral votes is around 2%.
Things may well shift in the next six days, of course. Don’t forget to vote!