Surprisingly enough, Oklahoma has become a battleground state in the Democratic primary process; the 538 polls-plus model makes this abundantly clear:
As a long-time registered independent, today (Super Tuesday!) was my very first opportunity to vote in a primary election. And it’s a damn nail-biter.
Elsewhere on Skeptic Ink, Staks Rosch and Caleb Lack have made persuasive cases for Bernie Sanders. They very nearly won me over, but in the end I pulled the lever (less poetically, inked in the box) for Hillary Clinton. Here is why:
- Clinton has a massive super-PAC backing her. She isn’t holding herself to Queensbury rules in a UFC match.
- Clinton has faced the wrath of the GOP attack machine since before I was first eligible to vote in 1992. (Never voted for Bill Clinton, in case you’re wondering.) The same attack machine is holding off from going after Sanders, presumably because they believe it would be tactically advantageous to keep that particular keg of powder dry.
- Clinton is currently trouncing Sanders in polling models of both Ohio and Florida. This is the best real-time indicator, in my estimation, of her ability to carry those crucial swing states in the general election. If an avowed democratic socialist cannot win among those known to be on the left, he probably cannot win overall.
While I’m closer to Sanders on many issues, and certainly find him more admirable as a human being, I do not believe he has a good shot at mobilizing the voters who reelected Obama in 2012. In the well-nigh inevitable skirmish with Donald Trump, I’m betting on Clinton’s proven ability to fight dirty over Sanders’ gentlemanly and dignified campaign style. This is a deeply cynical approach, to be sure, but I used up all my bright-eyed idealism back in 2008.