Way back when my wife and I were still undergraduates (and not yet married) she had the good fortune of being selected into a political science course taught by David Boren at the University of Oklahoma. He did not teach from the textbook so much as from his personal experiences as a State Governor and U.S. Senator, and he had a knack for provoking his students to think about difficult issues. Part of how he would do this was to ask the sort of questions that people don’t like to try to think about. The following is an excerpt from the beginning of his relatively recent book:
Three or four years ago I was serving on the Rhodes Scholarship Selection Committee for our area. The committee was interviewing an incredibly talented group of finalists for the scholarship. Almost by chance, I asked the first candidate, “How long do you think the United States will be the world’s leading superpower?” The candidate had already answered with great quickness and eloquence a host of difficult questions ranging from the arts to science and philosophy. He had demonstrated depth of thought and strong powers of analysis. Now, in response to my question he was struck silent. On his face was a look of shock. Although he continued to remain awkwardly silent, I could sense his desire to blurt out, “Forever,” or at least, “For all of my life.” He seemed bewildered that I would suggest that American dominance might not continue forever. Finally, in an effort to be helpful, I said, “Surely you realize that American dominance will not last forever.” I pointed out that the Roman, Ottoman, and British empires had not lasted forever.
I’d like to think that the decline of American power will be relatively graceful and gradual. Rome, Constantinople, and London remain great cities, after all, despite the sacking, occupation, and bombing they respectively experienced at the twilight of their empires. It is possible that Washington D.C. will remain powerful and relevant even after the U.S. fades back into a highly multipolar global power structure, and this may well be for the best.
A gradual decline, of course, makes it more difficult for historians to pin down precisely where a world power ceased to be preeminent as such, but I would like to suggest that it might well be today. If the Tea Party faction of the GOP succeeds in shredding the full faith and credit of the United States tonight, possibly plunging the world into yet another global credit crisis, future historians may look back and put a pin in October 2013 as the beginning of the end of America as a peerless world leader.
As the (allegedly) Chinese curse would have it, “May you live in interesting times.”
