{"id":858,"date":"2013-04-17T19:35:57","date_gmt":"2013-04-18T00:35:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/smilodonsretreat\/?p=858"},"modified":"2013-04-17T15:42:40","modified_gmt":"2013-04-17T20:42:40","slug":"climate-change-mitigation-update-2013","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/smilodonsretreat\/2013\/04\/17\/climate-change-mitigation-update-2013\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate Change Mitigation Update 2013"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Earth is getting warmer<\/a>.\u00a0 Greenhouse gases increase temperatures<\/a>. These are simple facts.\u00a0 The question is, can we (as a species) reduce the impact of our actions to the point where we can keep the increase in temperature at a manageable level?<\/p>\n

Surprisingly, all the models agree.\u00a0 We can keep the global temperatuure rise to a painful, but not massively dangerous 2\u00b0C.\u00a0 The real question is… can we do this?<\/p>\n

The International Energy Agency<\/a> has released a report (large PDF<\/a>) giving the status of the efforts to keep the global temperature increase to 2\u00b0C instead of four degree or six degree or even more.\u00a0 The agency has constructed models of various scenarios and has presented this as a map to keeping the temperature rise as low as possible.\u00a0 This graph is the result of those models.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Sector Contributions to Energy Reductions (IEA, 2013)<\/p>\n

If we keep on our current track, then we can expect a greater than 6\u00b0C increase in temperature.\u00a0 To keep the increase reasonable, then we are going to have to start reducing carbon emissions significantly by 2015.<\/p>\n

Are we on the right track?<\/p>\n

Short answer is ‘no’.\u00a0 Not even close.\u00a0 The longer answer is that there are some bright spots in the otherwise dim picture that is our global future.<\/p>\n

First, renewable energy generation is at an all-time high and increasing significantly.\u00a0 In 2011, the amount of solar photovoltaics (PV) increased by almost 50% and wind generation increased by almost 20%.\u00a0 This is especially prevalent in developing countries (such as China and India) which makes sense.\u00a0 Capital expenditures for the classic picture of electricity generation is expensive.\u00a0 Many, large powerplants connected by a large, complex grid of wires.\u00a0 It’s a lot easier for communities to build their own local systems and integrate the community, rather than the entire country.<\/p>\n

Developed countries are actually scaling back implementation of renewable power sources.\u00a0 This is the wrong direction.<\/p>\n

The other bright spot is that sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles are increasing enormously.\u00a0 The end of 2012 saw about 1.2 million of these vehicles on the road.\u00a0 Production, variety, and efficiency of these vehicles is increasing.\u00a0 This is another area that is potentially useful for emerging economies.\u00a0 Cars are status symbols, but they require a large infrastructure.<\/p>\n

Pure electric vehicles are generally simpler than internal combustion cars and can be recharged just about anywhere instead of having to build a network of gas stations.<\/p>\n

Most of the rest of the indicators, however, aren\u2019t looking so bright.<\/p>\n

Nuclear power is basically dead in the water.\u00a0 Nuclear plants must be built and existing reactors upgraded to meet the requirements.\u00a0 They are not.\u00a0 People are still shell-shocked from the Fukushima incident and no one wants to hear the words \u2018nuclear reactor\u2019.\u00a0 Of course, we won\u2019t get into the fact that no one has died from the Fukushima incident and millions of people have died from coal related incidents.<\/p>\n

Natural gas use is improving.\u00a0 Natural gas has less pollution.\u00a0 I don\u2019t like it for other reasons, but we need something to cover the lack of movement in nuclear power.<\/p>\n

Coal-fired power is a huge problem.\u00a0 There are many areas that are attempting to increase the use of coal-based power plants.\u00a0 Even though coal plants are not the cheapest system, they are highly polluting, and very dangerous in other ways (mine collapses).<\/p>\n

The technology for carbon capture technologies is also falling behind and not being implemented.\u00a0 Right now, everyone is talking about it, but there are no large-scale projects in the power sector and not very many in industry.<\/p>\n

Industry and construction are making some progress in improving energy efficiency (LEEDS homes for example).\u00a0 That being said, there are major improvements that can be made.\u00a0 Investment in industrial systems is not at the level they need to be.*<\/p>\n

Fuel economy remains a spotty area.\u00a0 Some countries\/regions are increasing their fuel economy on target, but some countries are not.\u00a0 There is a 55% difference between countries fuel economy standards.<\/p>\n

The smart grid is a big deal, but there is little effort being made in that direction.\u00a0 The efficiency increases in a smart grid would help with global power carbon levels.<\/p>\n

A recent survey of Americans indicates that infrastructure is dead last on their list of important issues to deal with.\u00a0 Meanwhile jobs creation is number one.\u00a0 Someone might need to remind the US population that infrastructure improvements are job creators.<\/p>\n

So that\u2019s the results.\u00a0 It\u2019s not the worst possible results, but it could be a lot better.<\/p>\n

We can do this, both technically and the ability to do so.\u00a0 Will we do so?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

_________________________<\/p>\n

* As an aside, one example that I just read about was the use of LED based-lights in corporate buildings.\u00a0 GE claims that if every building in the world adopted their new LED light that fits in a standard fluorescent tube socket, it would reduce the global power requirements by 7%.\u00a0 I have no way to judge the truth of this, but it is a claim.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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