A recent study by Public Religion Research Institute has brought cheers for the political left. According to Think Progress, “Religious Progressives will soon outnumber the conservatives”.
“Our new research shows a complex religious landscape, with religious conservatives holding an advantage over religious progressives in terms of size and homogeneity,” Dr. Robert P. Jones, CEO of Public Religion Research Institute, said in a press release. “However, the percentage of religious conservatives shrinks in each successive generation, with religious progressives outnumbering religious conservatives in the Millennial generation.”
There are reasons to be skeptical of the rather grandiose claim made by Think Progress. To begin with, according to the study, 22% of the millennial generation are non-religious, whereas past surveys have put the number quite a bit higher. This raises questions about Public Religion’s methodology. Further, the fact that there are no longitudinal data makes making predictions for the future on the relative numbers of religious liberals and conservatives difficult.
But even that not withstanding, taking a look at other data points from the same polls raise serious questions about the claim that religious progressives will “outnumber” conservatives. As it happens, among those will a religious affiliation, close to half think their religion should keep its traditional beliefs and practices, while only less than 30% think it should change with the times.
And while for some religious people the teachings of the faith about the poor mean creating a fairer society, for more it simply means being charitable as individuals.
Which is not so different from the libertarian “keep the government out of my pocket, I can give to the poor better myself” mantra.
While I consider myself a liberal, I think if liberals are hoping for future wins, they need to bet on the religiously unaffiliated, because that is more likely to pay off for them.
