{"id":494,"date":"2013-02-13T02:20:14","date_gmt":"2013-02-13T02:20:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/gps\/?p=494"},"modified":"2013-02-22T20:07:24","modified_gmt":"2013-02-22T20:07:24","slug":"can-a-computer-out-perform-your-doctor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/gps\/2013\/02\/13\/can-a-computer-out-perform-your-doctor\/","title":{"rendered":"Can a computer out perform your doctor?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In short, the answer is yes. Recent <a href=\"http:\/\/newsinfo.iu.edu\/news\/page\/normal\/23795.html\">research <\/a>by computer scientists <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cs.indiana.edu\/~hauserk\/\">Kris Hauser<\/a> and Casey Bennett at Indiana University has shown that computer-based decision making can potentially save enormous amounts of money for health-care consumers when compared to typical human decisions.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pubmed\/23287490\">Artificial intelligence framework for simulating clinical decision-making: A Markov decision process approach.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Basically, the researchers trained an AI that works through <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cs.rice.edu\/~vardi\/dag01\/givan1.pdf\">two<\/a> distinct <a href=\"http:\/\/artint.info\/html\/ArtInt_229.html\">processes<\/a> to learn how to make effective clinical decisions from real-life information (obtained from electronic medical records). They then compared the AI&#8217;s decisions to decisions made by human physicians. Turns out, not only did the AI outperform the human docs, it <em>freaking smoked them<\/em>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/newsinfo.iu.edu\/pub\/libs\/images\/usr\/15091_h.jpg\" alt=\"AI vs Docs\" width=\"436\" height=\"318\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/newsinfo.iu.edu\/news\/page\/normal\/23795.html\"><br \/>\n<\/a>&#8230;simulation modeling that understands and predicts the outcomes of treatment could reduce health care costs by over 50 percent while also improving patient outcomes by nearly 50 percent.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>That&#8217;s pretty impressive savings. Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this work, though, is the ability of this AI to perform these tasks <em>even<\/em> with missing data. This seems to be due to not just a reliance on <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ie.pitt.edu\/~schaefer\/Papers\/MDPMedTreatment.pdf\">one method of data processing<\/a>, but the combination of the two used. As the <a href=\"http:\/\/arxiv.org\/ftp\/arxiv\/papers\/1301\/1301.2158.pdf\">researchers write<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Given careful design and problem formulation, an AI simulation framework can approximate optimal decisions even in complex and uncertain environments.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The results are not very surprising to me, as numerous studies in my field (clinical psychology) have long shown that using computer-based or algorithmic decision making can greatly <a href=\"http:\/\/apsychoserver.psych.arizona.edu\/JJBAReprints\/PSYC621\/Westen%20et%20al_Simplifying%20Diagnosis%20using%20prototype%20matching_Rethinking%20the%20DSM_APA_2002.pdf\">improve diagnosis<\/a> or even predict who will <a href=\"http:\/\/centerforclinicalexcellence.com\/wp-content\/plugins\/buddypress-group-documents\/documents\/1330071104-Hannanetal2005.pdf\">not complete therapy<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>A reliance on algorithms in combination with clinical experience and accumen could prove highly beneficial to patients. Maybe clinical diagnoses would be more accurate than the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMsa022615\">50% rate<\/a> found in one large study, or a larger portion of healthcare providers would <a href=\"http:\/\/www.implementationscience.com\/content\/4\/1\/54\">follow best-practice guidelines<\/a>. It could also address a major plaguing health-care systems worldwide &#8211; cost increases with no significant gain in quality.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright\" src=\"http:\/\/www.popularmechanics.com\/cm\/popularmechanics\/images\/Gs\/tricorder-0212-mdn.jpg\" alt=\"Bones\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" \/>Here&#8217;s hoping that this is another step towards building a real-life medical <a href=\"http:\/\/en.memory-alpha.org\/wiki\/Medical_tricorder\">tricorder<\/a>, able to make accurate medical decisions with the wave of a hand!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In short, the answer is yes. Recent research by computer scientists Kris Hauser and Casey Bennett at Indiana University has&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[104,29,12,16],"tags":[105,106,20,102,30,18,25,7],"class_list":["post-494","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-medicine","category-mental-health","category-psychology","category-science-2","tag-algorithm","tag-computers","tag-critical-thinking","tag-health-2","tag-mental-health-2","tag-psychology-2","tag-public-policy","tag-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/gps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/494","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/gps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/gps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/gps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/25"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/gps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=494"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/gps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/494\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/gps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=494"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/gps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=494"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/gps\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=494"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}