{"id":4015,"date":"2016-11-08T09:12:36","date_gmt":"2016-11-08T15:12:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/?p=4015"},"modified":"2016-11-08T14:37:09","modified_gmt":"2016-11-08T20:37:09","slug":"apocalypse-anticlimax-election-2016-final-models","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/2016\/11\/08\/apocalypse-anticlimax-election-2016-final-models\/","title":{"rendered":"Apocalypse or Anticlimax \u2014 Election 2016 Final Models"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A concise collection of election day final\u00a0forecasts from reasonably reputable analysts, for future reference.<\/p>\n<p>Mostly focused on electoral vote (EV) projections, for constitutional reasons. All forecasts as of this morning,\u00a0Feb 8th,\u00a00900 CST.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><a href=\"http:\/\/election.princeton.edu\/todays-electoral-vote-histogram\/\">Princeton Election Consortium<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>Clinton 307 EV, Trump 231 EV, Clinton win probability: 99%<\/p>\n<p>Oddly enough, PEC&#8217;s current histogram is significantly less bullish on Clinton than their current stated probability.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/election.princeton.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/autographics\/EV_histogram_today.png\" \/><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2016\/upshot\/presidential-polls-forecast.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&amp;action=click&amp;contentCollection=upshot&amp;region=rank&amp;module=package&amp;version=highlights&amp;contentPlacement=4&amp;pgtype=sectionfront&amp;_r=0\">The Upshot (NYT)<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>Clinton win probability: 84%<\/p>\n<p>Upshot doesn&#8217;t report\u00a0EV estimates, but their histogram peaks somewhere between 310-350 EV for Clinton.<br \/>\n<span style=\"color: #ffffff\">.<\/span><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/11\/presidential-polls-forecast.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-4016\" src=\"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/11\/presidential-polls-forecast-1024x488.png\" alt=\"presidential-polls-forecast\" width=\"1024\" height=\"488\" srcset=\"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/11\/presidential-polls-forecast-1024x488.png 1024w, https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/11\/presidential-polls-forecast-300x143.png 300w, https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/11\/presidential-polls-forecast-768x366.png 768w, https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/11\/presidential-polls-forecast.png 1050w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><a href=\"http:\/\/elections.dailykos.com\/app\/elections\/2016\/office\/president\">Daily Kos<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>Clinton 323 EV, Trump 215 EV, Clinton win probability: 92%<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/11\/dailykos-president.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4017\" src=\"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/11\/dailykos-president.png\" alt=\"dailykos-president\" width=\"790\" height=\"497\" srcset=\"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/11\/dailykos-president.png 790w, https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/11\/dailykos-president-300x189.png 300w, https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/11\/dailykos-president-768x483.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 790px) 100vw, 790px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><a href=\"http:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/2016-election-forecast\/?ex_cid=rrpromo#now\">FiveThirtyEight<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>Clinton 302 EV, Trump 235 EV, Clinton win probability: 71.4%<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/11\/538_final_nowcast.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4018\" src=\"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/11\/538_final_nowcast.png\" alt=\"538_final_nowcast\" width=\"824\" height=\"638\" srcset=\"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/11\/538_final_nowcast.png 824w, https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/11\/538_final_nowcast-300x232.png 300w, https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/11\/538_final_nowcast-768x595.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 824px) 100vw, 824px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Side note: How to tell 538&#8217;s model apart from the others:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Loosely speaking:<br \/>538 more right if HRC gets &lt;=285 EV or &gt;=375 EV<br \/>Others more right if she gets 300 EV to 350<br \/>in-between areas sort of a tie<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NateSilver538\/status\/795424804136423426?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 7, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Prediction: Nate will soon regret saying this.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><a href=\"http:\/\/www.270towin.com\/maps\/crystal-ball-electoral-college-ratings\">Sabato Crystal Ball<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>Clinton 322 EV, Trump 216 EV<\/p>\n<div align=\"center\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.270towin.com\/maps\/crystal-ball-electoral-college-ratings\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.270towin.com\/map-images\/crystal-ball-electoral-college-ratings\" width=\"800\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<small><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"vertical-align: middle\" src=\"http:\/\/www.270towin.com\/uploads\/3rd_party_270_30px.png\" alt=\"\" \/> Click the map to create your own at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.270towin.com\/maps\/crystal-ball-electoral-college-ratings\">270toWin.com<\/a><\/small><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Looking forward to seeing who came closest to projecting reality.<\/p>\n<p>If you know of any other prediction models worth sharing, please leave a comment below.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A concise collection of election day final\u00a0forecasts from reasonably reputable analysts, for future reference. Mostly focused on electoral vote (EV)&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":3937,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[43,18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4015","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-current-events","category-damned-lies-and-statistics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4015","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4015"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4015\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3937"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4015"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4015"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4015"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}