{"id":4014,"date":"2016-11-02T15:00:35","date_gmt":"2016-11-02T20:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/?p=4014"},"modified":"2016-11-02T15:00:35","modified_gmt":"2016-11-02T20:00:35","slug":"graph-of-the-week-electoral-college-outcomes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/2016\/11\/02\/graph-of-the-week-electoral-college-outcomes\/","title":{"rendered":"Graph of the Week \u2014 Electoral College Outcomes"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/2016\/09\/20\/map-week-trump-ties\/\">little while back<\/a>, I mentioned my\u00a0tiny (but reasonably functional) toy model of the electoral college.<\/p>\n<p>Based on the state-level poll averages as of yesterday evening, here are the most likely results, in histogram form:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Microblogging the electoral college via <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SkepticInk?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@SkepticInk<\/a> &amp; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/D4M10N?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@D4M10N<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/JepgabdmQH\">https:\/\/t.co\/JepgabdmQH<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/01qksiEZ9S\">pic.twitter.com\/01qksiEZ9S<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Skeptic Ink (@SkepticInk) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SkepticInk\/status\/793903612023881728?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 2, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>This chart is based on 10,000 iterations of the model, such that a bar of height 500 represents a 5% chance.<\/p>\n<p>In case you are wondering\u2014and I&#8217;m\u00a0sure you must be\u2014the cumulative probability of everything to the left of 270 electoral votes is around 2%.<\/p>\n<p>Things may well shift in the next six days, of course.\u00a0Don&#8217;t forget to vote!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A little while back, I mentioned my\u00a0tiny (but reasonably functional) toy model of the electoral college. Based on the state-level&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":3937,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[43,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-current-events","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4014","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4014"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4014\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3937"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}