Lately, these various models have been misbehaving like a pack of unschooled children in\u00a0a science museum. Hopping from left to right, weaving past each other, and utterly failing to converge on anything resembling\u00a0consensus. As they probably don’t say<\/a> in China, “May you live in interesting times.”<\/p>\n All of these vacillating numbers led me to whip up my own model, mostly out of curiosity. My numbers turned out to be closest to those of Sam Wang. While\u00a0I have nothing much to add to the experts in terms of most likely outcome, I was surprised\u00a0to see that my model’s probability of an electoral college tie popped up to just over one percent.<\/p>\n I have good reasons to believe the real world\u00a0probability is somewhat lower, but wow. The idea that the GOP-dominated House of Representatives might ultimately decide<\/a> this election keeps me up at night. Just in case you might be sleeping too well,\u00a0here are the maps for my two most likely electoral tie scenarios, as of this week:<\/p>\n Each of these maps represent only around a \u00bc of one percent of the simulation runs\u00a0in my model, so they are fairly unlikely on their own. There are another dozen tie scenarios which are likely enough to show up in my model, however, and altogether they add up to over one percent of the total runs.\u00a0Should the polls continue to tighten, I would expect more of them to pop up over time.<\/p>\n
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