{"id":3747,"date":"2016-02-01T09:09:49","date_gmt":"2016-02-01T15:09:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/?p=3747"},"modified":"2016-02-01T09:09:49","modified_gmt":"2016-02-01T15:09:49","slug":"graph-of-the-week-safe-money-in-iowa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/2016\/02\/01\/graph-of-the-week-safe-money-in-iowa\/","title":{"rendered":"Graph of the Week \u2014 Safe Money in Iowa"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[<strong>Content note<\/strong>: Probable election spoilers. If you live in Iowa, and you intend to caucus Republican, please don&#8217;t read this. Just go vote forth and your conscience.]<\/p>\n<p>The primary process kicks off in earnest today, as Iowans go out to caucus for their preferred candidate. Accordingly, today is our last chance to check the <a href=\"http:\/\/tinyurl.com\/j4bvte9\" target=\"_blank\">betting markets<\/a> to see which outcomes are considered long shots and which are thought to be safe money. Here is what you&#8217;d receive from placing a $100 bet on each of the GOP frontrunners in Iowa:<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3748\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3748\" style=\"width: 513px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3748\" src=\"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/02\/gop-betting-iowa.png\" alt=\"Bigger stacks mean worse odds of winning\" width=\"513\" height=\"578\" srcset=\"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/02\/gop-betting-iowa.png 513w, https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/02\/gop-betting-iowa-266x300.png 266w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 513px) 100vw, 513px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3748\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bigger stacks mean <em>worse<\/em> odds of winning<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Notice that a $100 wager on Trump will get you only $44 in return if he wins, which is to say that he is by far the odds-on favorite. Cruz is a bit behind, at 2-to-1 against, and Rubio is a distant third at 12-to-1 odds. All the other candidates are such awful long-shots as to be ruinous to the y-axis upon inclusion:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3749\" src=\"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/02\/gop-betting-iowa-2.png\" alt=\"gop-betting-iowa-2\" width=\"513\" height=\"758\" srcset=\"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/02\/gop-betting-iowa-2.png 513w, https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/files\/2016\/02\/gop-betting-iowa-2-203x300.png 203w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 513px) 100vw, 513px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m sorry to say this, but right now the safe money is on Trump. For once, I would really like to have my faith in prediction markets overturned.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[Content note: Probable election spoilers. If you live in Iowa, and you intend to caucus Republican, please don&#8217;t read this.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-damned-lies-and-statistics","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3747","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3747"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3747\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3747"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3747"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/skepticink.com\/backgroundprobability\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3747"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}