Last night, Ted Cruz went on record with the bold claim that his campaign has a plausible path to the nomination.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4KRnZ3crTs
As of this morning, Cruz has 407 pledged delegates. He requires 830 more delegates between today and June 8th, out of 1,012 in contention. To stop Cruz from getting to the magic number, Trump need only win the delegates from three states: New York, New Jersey, and Arizona. It might be mathematically possible for Cruz to win over 80% of outstanding delegates, but it isn’t remotely plausible. Unless our favorite stubby-fingered vulgarian literally shoots someone on Fifth Avenue, Cruz has no chance at getting the nomination on the first ballot.
On the flipside, however, it is entirely plausible that Cruz could prevent Trump from getting to 1,237. Trump needs 585 more pledged delegates, which requires a significantly higher success rate than he has achieved so far. In a head-to-head with Cruz, the math gets worse for Trump, as I mentioned yesterday.
In related news, prediction markets are offering GOP brokered convention contracts at only 40¢ as of this morning.
Will Republicans have a brokered convention? PredictIt traders think so today.https://t.co/hAd8OkIbs8 pic.twitter.com/Ty2e5fDTYv
— Paula Christian (@PaulaChristian_) March 15, 2016
A damn bargain, if you ask me.
