Alas, I’ve been prepping a boring lecture for tomorrow so there is no time to do any recreational statistics this week. I would very much commend the reader to visit FiveThirtyEight, however, where they have put together an excellent projected path to the GOP nomination for the top three candidates. Bear in mind that it is not a forecast, but rather a set of benchmarks which any of the three will have to outperform in order to be on track to win it all. Here is a snippet:
By April 26th the leading candidate (whichever one) will need to have around 950 delegates in the bag. Prior to that point, Rubio will probably be playing catch-up, on account of far-right and anti-establishment voting blocs dominating the early contests.
We may have a good sense of who takes it all somewhat earlier, ominously enough, on the ides of March.
Florida and Ohio, which tend to support more conventional Republicans, are likelier to shape the race’s destiny than Iowa or South Carolina. That’s because they will award a whopping 99 and 72 delegates, respectively, in huge winner-take-all primaries on March 15.
If any one candidate takes both FL & OH, that may be all she wrote. Stay tuned.
