First things first, a wonky numbers post. Huge congratulations are in order to the analysts Josh Putnam and Nate Silver for independently nailing the Electoral College count (332 to 206) beforehand, by aggregating and weighting state-level polling data. As I’ve been saying to my friends all along “Statistics — It works, bitches.”
Congrats also to Donna Brazile, the political professional with the closest prediction at 313 to 225. I’ve no idea what method she used, but no one else came close to her without using loads of spreadsheets and modelling.
Congratulations are also due to MSNBC for having Melissa Harris-Perry and Ezra Klein on their payroll. Whereas Fox News contributors got the college wrong by between 60-120 electoral votes, no one in the professional punditry business came closer than Klein and Harris-Perry, who both predicted 290 to 248.
Finally, the walk of shame award goes to Dean Chambers, creator of the hilariously titled UnSkewed Polls who should serve as an example to future generations that you can carefully construct your own comfortable reality, but it can only last until the hard data roll in and crush your dreams. May you quickly fade into obscurity, Mr. Chambers, and may your readership come to rejoin us in the real world.
